Delayed harvesting supports corn prices in Ukraine

As of September 16, 406 thousand tons of corn with an average yield of 4.8 t/ha were threshed in Ukraine from 85 thousand hectares or 2% of the area. Last year, as of this date, 3% of the area was threshed. Prolonged precipitation hinders harvesting, and the lag from last year's pace will grow, since first of all farmers will harvest sunflower and soybeans.

The delay in deliveries to ports has already led to a slight increase in purchase prices for corn to 2 246-248/ton or UAH 7400-7500/ton. traders are ready to pay extra for fast deliveries.

At the same time, demand prices for Black Sea corn from importers remain at 2 260/ton, while sellers offer it at.265-270/ton.

The main buyer of Ukrainian corn in my 2020/21 was China, which bought 36% of exported corn and pushed out such traditional buyers as the EU, Egypt, Turkey, South Korea, the United Kingdom and some Southeast Asian countries.

Against the background of an increase in the export supply of corn from Ukraine in the current season from 23 to 30 million tons, it remains to be hoped that China will continue to buy Ukrainian corn, and not American, especially given the recent political disputes between the United States and China.

In a September report, USDA experts raised the forecast for corn production in China and lowered estimates of its consumption for certain categories. Moreover, the Chinese government suggests replacing corn with other grains and meal products to reduce dependence on imports.

Hopes for an increase in corn exports from Ukraine to the EU against the background of a decrease in supplies from Brazil in 2020/21 MG due to record high prices are also unlikely to be justified, as EU countries have increased wheat and corn production, which may lead to a reduction in imports.

Since the beginning of my 2021/22, the European Union has imported 3.14 million tons of corn (3.8 million tons as of the same date last year), including 1.96 million tons from Brazil and 0.75 million tons from Ukraine. The share of Ukrainian corn increased from 5.8% to 23.7% compared to the previous season.

Starting from July 1, according to the state migration service, Ukraine exported 1.392 million tons of corn as of September 22, which is 773 thousand tons higher than last year's pace.