Delayed corn harvest in Ukraine will contribute to price increases at the start of the season

Drought in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine has reduced the yield potential of late crops, particularly corn, while in western and northern regions, corn ripening is 2-3 weeks later than in previous years. Precipitation this week will increase corn moisture and delay the start of harvest.

Therefore, in the coming month, we expect the same situation that developed in the sunflower market, when the southern regions did not have a harvest and did not conduct active sales, while the northern regions had not yet begun mass harvesting, which led to a shortage of raw materials and an increase in prices.

According to producers' estimates, the mass harvesting of corn will not begin until early or mid-October, and that is assuming dry weather in the next two weeks. So far, corn moisture in the center and west reaches 30-35%.

It is worth noting that traders who have corn sales for September and October have already increased their export demand prices for corn by 100-200 UAH/t to 9350-9500 UAH/t or 203-206 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. Recall that the maximum prices for forward purchases were 205-209 $/t.

Prices in Ukraine are also supported by the increase in corn quotes in Chicago, despite the increase in the harvest forecast in the US.

In a September report, USDA experts increased the forecast for US corn production in the 2025/26 MY by another 1.85 million tons to a record 427.11 million tons, which will exceed the 2024 harvest by 49.5 million tons, and the export forecast by 2.5 million tons to 75.6 million tons compared to 71.9 million tons last season.

December corn futures in Chicago rose 5.6% to $169/t on strong export sales and hopes that US-China trade talks will resume exports to China. Lower-than-expected initial crop data, with 7% of the US crop already threshed, also supported prices.

It should be noted that November corn futures on the Paris stock exchange have not changed at all in a month and are trading at €188.25/t or $223/t, despite a sharp decrease in the EU corn harvest forecast by 2.7 million tons to 55.3 million tons (compared to 59.3 million tons in 2024).

China's Ministry of Agriculture in its monthly report lowered its forecast for corn imports in the current fiscal year (October 2024 to September 2025) from 7 million tons to 2 million tons compared to previous estimates due to import quotas and tariffs from the United States. The agency left its forecast for corn imports in the next fiscal year unchanged at 7 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 10 million tons.

According to the US Food and Agriculture Organization, China has not yet contracted for any shipments of American corn for this and next fiscal years.