Delayed supplies from Ukraine and the Russian Federation support rapeseed prices, but increased supply will soon increase pressure on quotes

In the August report, USDA experts again increased the forecast for global rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY by 0.5 million tons to a record 99.08 million tons, which will exceed the 2025/26 MY figure by 3.4 million tons and the 2024/25 MY figure by 13 million tons, but quotes responded to this with an increase.

In two days, November rapeseed futures in Paris rose by 1.6% to €540.5/t or $623/t (reaching last month's level), and November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose by 2.9% to CAD804/t or $578/t (+3.7% for the month), despite an increase in the harvest forecast in Canada by 0.5 million tons to 22.5 million tons.

Speculative growth is associated with a reduction in rapeseed supplies from Ukraine through the Black Sea ports and the suspension of the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation after the shelling, but fundamental factors indicate a sufficiently high supply of oilseeds, in particular rapeseed, this season, so as the supply increases, prices will drop sharply.

On the Matif exchange, hedge funds reduced their net long position by 4,336 contracts last week, but left a net long position at 73,000 contracts in anticipation of a price increase.

The European rapeseed market remains under pressure from delayed deliveries from both Ukraine and local farmers due to low water levels in the Rhine and Danube, which increases transportation costs and supports high prices in the physical market.

Demand prices for rapeseed with delivery to factories in the EU in August-September are currently 20-25 €/t lower than November futures on Matif, and are 510-520 €/t, but the number of buyers with space for acceptance is very limited.

In Ukraine, processors are leaving the demand prices for rapeseed at the level of 19,500-21,500 UAH/t (oil content 44%) with delivery to factories, since they have already purchased the volumes needed for 2-3 months, while exporters have raised prices for domestic elevators, from which they load to western terminals, to the level of 21,000-21,500 UAH/t EXW elevators against the background of increasing stock quotes.

Export demand prices for rapeseed in the ports of the Danube and the Black Sea are declared at the level of $470-490/t or 21,000-22,000 UAH/t, and with delivery to terminals on the western border - at the level of $450-480/t or 21,000-22,000 UAH/t.

The fall in domestic prices for rapeseed and sunflower of the new harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation will sharply increase the supply of cheap oil on the world market in September-October, so importers, against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in the supply of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil, will restrain purchases in anticipation of a decrease in prices.