Delay in rapeseed supplies from Ukraine supports quotes in Paris

Exporters paid a 10% duty on rapeseed, which allowed traders to send some ships from Ukrainian ports, but other ships are still idle and traders continue to pay demurrage for idleness. This situation has practically stopped the sales of rapeseed for export by producers, so traders have begun to cancel ships for rapeseed and soybeans in anticipation of new government clarifications on the payment of duties and their subsequent return to agricultural producers.

 

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine increased to UAH 23,200-23,500/t or $535-550/t with delivery to Black Sea ports by the end of the week, but farmers mainly sell small batches only under hryvnia contracts.

 

Processors are in no hurry to raise rapeseed prices, leaving them at the level of 22,500-23,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, but the shortage of sunflower supplies caused by the crop failure in the south and prolonged rainfall in the west will encourage processors to increase their rapeseed processing plans this season, especially given the rather high margin of its processing.

 

Rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange rose by only 3.1% (after falling to a 6-month low) to €475.75/t or $560/t in the two weeks since the imposition of duties in Ukraine, amid ample supply from local producers, but forecasts of reduced supplies from Ukraine will support prices. The issue of canola imports from Australia this season remains in question, as the Australian government has provided subsidies for biodiesel production within the country, which will increase domestic processing and, against the backdrop of opening exports to China, reduce supplies to the EU.

 

November canola futures in Winnipeg were virtually unchanged during the week and are trading at 625 CAD/t or $453/t (-3.2% month-on-month) due to the lack of hopes for a resumption of exports to China and forecasts of dry weather that will accelerate harvesting in the near future.

 

Due to the rainfall, the canola harvest is being delayed significantly. As of September 14, canola has been harvested on 33% of the area in Manitoba, on September 15 in Saskatchewan – only 21% of the area, and on September 9 in Alberta – only 13% of the area.

 

Let us remind you that frosty weather may begin in Canada from October 1. Therefore, export demand for Ukrainian rapeseed from the EU will increase, especially against the backdrop of a sharp decrease in sunflower production, as a result of which EU processors will also increase the share of rapeseed processing.