Delayed deliveries support corn prices in Ukrainian ports

Constant air raids and attacks by the Russian Federation on the infrastructure of the Odessa region and the Black Sea ports stop the work of all enterprises. The acceptance and shipment of grain at the ports is delayed, which increases the cost of transshipment, freight and leads to a decrease in foreign exchange export prices.

 

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine decreased by $3-4/t to $202-205/t or UAH 9,550-9,700/t for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week. A slight increase in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia supports hryvnia prices, especially given the delay in harvesting and forecasts of a decrease in production in Ukraine, so no further price decline is expected.

 

During December 1-17, Ukraine exported 1.045 million tons of corn (compared to 0.76 million tons for the same period last year). But in total, since the beginning of the 2025/26 season, only 4.75 million tons of corn have been exported, which is 68% lower than last year's pace. Demand for expensive Ukrainian corn on the world market remains low, as the USA and Brazil are actively exporting large volumes of cheap corn.

 

March corn futures in Chicago rose 0.9% to $173.4/t yesterday, partially recovering last week's prolonged 2.2% drop, but still trading 1.9% lower than a month ago.

 

The quote was supported by the increase in ethanol production in the US. According to the EIA, corn ethanol production in the US for the week of December 6-12 reached a record 1.131 million barrels/day, and inventories, despite this, decreased by 157 thousand barrels to 22.353 million barrels.

 

Corn exports from the US for the period December 5-11 decreased by 9% compared to the previous week to 1.589 million tons (which is 37.25% more than for the same period in 2024), and in total in the 2025/26MY season reached 22.5 million tons, which is 68.7% higher than the corresponding figure last year and is 27.7% of the forecast volume for the entire season.

 

According to ANEC forecasts, Brazil will export 6.35 million tons of corn in December, which will correspond to the level of November.

 

It should be noted that corn purchase prices in South Korea have decreased slightly over the week. According to European traders, on December 17, the South Korean company Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased 268 thousand tons of feed corn at an international tender at a price of $253-254/ton C&F (plus a surcharge of $1.5/ton for unloading at another port) for delivery in April 2026, while on December 9, the South Korean Feed Manufacturers Association (KFA) purchased 132 thousand tons of feed corn at a tender for delivery in March-April 2026 at a price of $255-256.84/ton C&F.