China's purchase of about 700 thousand tons of barley from Ukraine will further intensify the competitive struggle of traders and support prices in the 2025/26 MY

After a sharp increase in barley export prices in Ukraine last week, they stabilized and remained at the level of UAH 9,350-9,500/t or $196-200/t with delivery to Black Sea ports this week.

The other day it became known that China contracted about 500-700 thousand tons of feed barley from Ukraine at a price of $240/ton CIF, which minus freight is approximately $200-205/ton FOB Black Sea ports or $190-195/ton CPT port.

Considering that the forecast for the barley harvest in Ukraine has been reduced to 4.5-5 million tons, and the export potential is only 2 million tons (compared to 2.32 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 2.477 million tons in 2023/24 MY), such a large volume of purchases (almost 25% of the export potential), also certified for China, will greatly increase export demand and competition between exporters.

Data on better barley yields in central and western Ukraine than in the southeast have somewhat reassured traders, who have begun trying to lower purchase prices. But farmers are in no hurry to sell the first batches of harvested barley, awaiting the results of threshing and an assessment of the total harvest.

Low world prices for feed corn and wheat will limit further growth in barley prices, so after the harvest in Ukraine, the EU and the Russian Federation, barley prices may turn downward in August.