Purchase prices for barley in Ukraine have increased, but remain lower than prices for corn and fodder wheat

Last week, export demand prices for fodder barley in Black Sea ports rose to UAH 8,000-8,100/t or $170-172/t, which corresponds to the price level at the beginning of the season. However, they remain $15-20/t lower than feed wheat and corn prices.

In September, China sharply reduced its purchases of barley to support local producers, which immediately reduced the pace of Ukrainian barley exports.

In FY 2024/25 (as of September 25), Ukraine exported 1.245 million tons of barley (600 thousand tons for the same period last year), of which 631 thousand tons went to China, 110 thousand tons to Libya, and 103 thousand tons to Spain.

Against the backdrop of high prices for corn and feed wheat, farmers are in no rush to sell barley, but demand for it from exporters remains low, as the EU will receive a good harvest of barley this year.

This also reduces the demand for Ukrainian malting barley, the prices of which remain at the level of UAH 7,800-8,000/t with delivery to the factory. The premium for malting barley is almost zero, although last year it reached UAH 2,500-3,000/ton. Farmers sell malting barley as fodder, not expecting price increases in the near future.

In December, Australian barley will enter the market, the harvest of which will exceed last year's, so demand from China is unlikely to grow.

In 2023/24 FY, Ukraine collected 5.5 million tons of barley (5.8 million tons in 2022/23 FY), of which it will be able to export 2.5-3 million tons (2.5 million tons last year).