Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine have decreased amid falling oil prices

The increase in sunflower supply and the fall in sunflower oil prices led to a decrease in speculative demand for sunflower in Ukraine and a price pullback.

In Ukraine, producers managed to accelerate the harvest of sunflower, despite high humidity and periodic precipitation. As of November 6, 8.729 million tons of sunflower were harvested from 90% of the planned area or 4.61 million hectares, with a yield of 1.89 tons/hectare (last year, 9.684 million tons were harvested from 95% of the area with a yield of 2.06 tons/hectare). Due to excessive precipitation, part of the harvest in the west was lost, so the total harvest in Ukraine will not exceed 10-10.5 million tons (compared to 11.5 million tons last year).

Sunflower purchase prices fell by another UAH 200-500/t to UAH 27,400-28,500/t or $573-595/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) delivered to the factory during the week following a further drop in sunflower oil prices. It should be noted that some processors significantly reduced prices, having accumulated sufficient stocks, while others still continue to maintain high prices to increase supplies.

Demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine decreased by another $10-20/t to $1,220-1,230/t for delivery to ports in November-December, having lost about $40-50/t in the last two weeks under the pressure of a 10% drop in palm oil prices per month. In the Indian market, the spread between sunflower and palm oil prices has grown to $200-220/t, so local processors are again switching to purchasing cheap palm oil.

In the coming weeks, the market will remain in anticipation of the completion of the sunflower harvest in the Black Sea region, and prices will be adjusted according to the updated balances.

According to the European Commission's estimates, in 2025, sunflower production in the EU countries will be only about 8.5 million tons, which, although it will exceed the poor harvest of 2024 by 3%, will be the third lowest harvest in the last 10 years.

In the Russian Federation, by the end of October, sunflower had been harvested on 82% of the area or 10 million hectares, of which 15.1 million tons were threshed, so the harvest potential remains at 16.5-17.5 million tons compared to 16.5 million tons last year.