Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine reached UAH 25,000/t, but further growth will limit the fall in prices for petroleum and soybean oil

Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine continue to rise rapidly against the backdrop of a reduced harvest and a lack of offers from farmers. At the same time, the prices of sunflower oil and meal are also increasing, but not as fast as for sunflower.

As of October 4, domestic farmers from 3.9 million hectares or 78% of the area collected 8 million tons of sunflower with a yield of 2.05 tons/ha, which is inferior to last year. The total harvest may amount to 11 million tons (15.5 million tons in FY 2023/24), which will be lower than forecast.

This week, in order to fulfill contracts for the supply of oil, some processors were forced to raise the purchase prices for sunflower with an oil content of 50% to UAH 25,000/t with delivery to the factory, although only a week ago they offered UAH 22,500-23,000/t for it. But farmers continue to hold back sales in anticipation of further price increases.

During the week, demand prices for sunflower oil in the ports of Ukraine increased by another $20-30/t to $1015-1025/t, and for sunflower meal - by $5-10/t to $210-220/t.

Speculative oil price gains of 13% last week supported palm oil prices, but oil prices fell 4.9% yesterday and December soybean futures in Chicago fell 3.5% to $949/t. which corresponds to the level of the previous week.

Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil can be supported by increased demand from Turkey. According to FAS USDA, in 2024/25 FY, sunflower production in the country will decrease by 300 thousand tons to the lowest level since 2015/16 FY of 1.25 million tons due to very dry weather in the main growing region. Therefore, sunflower imports can grow by 100 thousand tons to 550 thousand tons compared to 380 thousand tons in 2023/24 MY.