Purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine continue to fall following prices for vegetable oils

The global supply of sunflower this season will reach a record level, in particular, in the Russian Federation, sunflower production will grow from 17.5 to 21 million tons, so the Russians have already stepped up sales, which has led to a decrease in prices in India and other buyers.

 

Demand prices for sunflower oil in India fell by $100/t to $1,380/t CIF Mumbai in a month under pressure from increased supply from the Black Sea region, and supply prices for Russian sunflower oil decreased by $100-120/t to $1,250-1,270/t FOB - Black Sea ports due to rising freight and ship insurance costs.

 

In Ukraine, the demand prices for sunflower oil fell by $10/t to $1,090-1,100/t for delivery to Danube ports in a week due to increased shelling of ports and increased freight costs. The cost of delivering oil from Ukraine to EU countries by car rose to $160-200/t, which increases pressure on prices.

 

The best prices for sunflower are currently offered by processing plants located near the western border of Ukraine, which have cheaper and faster export logistics.

 

Purchase prices for sunflower decreased by another 500 UAH/t over the week to 17,500-19,000 UAH/t including VAT ($345-370/t excluding VAT) with delivery to the plant, depending on the location of the enterprise.

 

At the same time, export demand prices for sunflower with delivery to Bulgaria remain at the level of $550-560/t, but supplies are limited by bureaucratic obstacles (the need to obtain a license and the Ministry of Economy's increase in minimum export prices ).

 

The pace of sunflower harvesting in Ukraine is significantly lower than last year, and as of September 22, 1.5 million tons of sunflower were threshed from 756 thousand hectares or 14.5% of the area with a yield of 1.98 t/ha, while at this time last year, 2.415 million tons were harvested from 1.37 million hectares or 26.7% of the area with a yield of 1.76 t/ha (in 2024, 49% of the area was threshed, and the yield was 2.01 t/ha).

 

A good harvest in southern and eastern Ukraine this season will increase supply, but due to the shutdown of factories and exports across the Black Sea, purchase prices for sunflower in those regions will be much lower than in the west, so local producers will again receive lower incomes and will increase the supply of cheap sunflower.

 

We do not expect successful negotiations with the Russian Federation regarding a maritime ceasefire or a cessation of strikes, and we believe that, on the contrary, it will increase strikes on Ukrainian oil extraction plants in order to eliminate Ukraine as a competitor in the supply of sunflower oil to the world market.