Purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain stable, despite the volatility of the world market

International traders are intensifying purchases of grain and oil crops in Ukraine, which is increasing competition, especially in the rapeseed market. More and more terminals in the ports of Odesa, Pivdenny and Chornomorsk are resuming the reception of grain.

The drop in rapeseed prices on world exchanges last week had almost no effect on purchase prices in Ukraine, as they take into account the high risks associated with shipments, which allows traders to make purchases at a stable price.

Purchase prices for rape with delivery to the port of Odesa or Chornomorsk remain at the level of UAH 15,500-16,200/t, but the resumption of purchases for foreign currency at a price of $450-460/t led to an increase in offers from producers.

Purchase prices for rapeseed at elevators remain at the level of UAH 14,000-15,000/t, but in the western regions there is a demand for rapeseed loaded into big bags for delivery to the EU, so the prices there are higher.

Demand prices for supplies of DAP Poland, Romania, Bulgaria against the backdrop of increased supplies remain at the level of $530-550/t.

Global rapeseed and canola prices fell significantly last week, but yesterday's quotes partially recovered from the fall:

• November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF yesterday rose by 3.5% to €622.75/t or $618.88/t (-1.5% for the week).
• November canola futures rose 3.3% yesterday to CAD 845/t or $648.5/t (+1% on the week), but a weaker euro added to pressure on Canadian exchanges.

The weather in Canada is conducive to the formation of the canola crop, which will begin to be harvested in September. This will add pressure on prices, especially if Canada is unable to sell canola to the EU, where the dollar price is currently 5-10% lower.

In 2020/21, Canada exported 2 million tons of canola to the EU, and in 2021/22, only 450,000 tons due to a reduction in production to 12.6 million tons. This year, the country will harvest 20 million tons of canola, so it will be forced to find a market for sales 10-11 million tons, which will be difficult to achieve, given the increase in global soybean production by 11% compared to last year.

All this will accordingly increase the pressure on export prices for Ukrainian rapeseed, which, against the background of low demand, may soon turn purchase prices downwards.