Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine reached their highest levels last season

After the release of the USDA report, purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine continued to grow following stock quotes, and reached 2 280/ton in ports, which almost corresponds to the maximum of the previous season. However, this did not boost sales from manufacturers.

Lower forecasts for the wheat harvest in the United States and Canada should have led to a rise in the price of wheat futures on the US stock exchanges, but they almost did not change on Friday, and yesterday even decreased, while in Europe quotes are rising after prices for Black Sea wheat due to a significant decrease in the forecast for the harvest in Russia.

Spring wheat harvesting in the United States is accelerating, and as of August 15, 58% of the area was threshed, which is 22% higher than the 5-year average. 11% of spring wheat crops remain in good or excellent condition, which is the worst figure since 1986.

Wheat exports from the United States for the week decreased by 48% to 440.6 thousand tons, and in general in the season amounted to 4.885 million tons, which is 13.73% lower than last year's pace. This indicates low demand even against the background of a reduction in the harvest.

September US futures fell:

• by 0 0.64 / ton to Чикаго 279.3/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2 2.11 / ton to H 270.4/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0 0.83/ton to.346.1 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange were trading at the same level:

• September-3 300.5 / ton,
• December-3 314.5 / ton.

Supply prices for Black Sea Food wheat rose sharply in Russia to 3 300-310/ton FOB and in Ukraine – to.295-300/ton FOB, which led to an increase in purchase prices in ports.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for food wheat increased in ports to 2 275-280/ton or UAH 8350-8500/ton, which almost corresponds to the level of prices in February – early March, when they reached.285/ton.

Wheat exports from Russia for the week increased to 1 million tons, and in general in the season reached 3.8 million tons, which is 20% lower than last year's pace. SovEcon agency lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia to 76.2 million tons, which is significantly higher than the USDA forecast of 72.5 million tons.

Strategie Grains experts lowered their forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2021/22 MG by 1.5 million tons to 131.5 million tons, which will significantly exceed 118.8 million tons of the 2020/21 season.

Algeria yesterday announced an international tender for the purchase of wheat, which will support quotes in the EU.

• On the Paris Stock Exchange, September wheat flour futures fell by €2/ton to €252.5/ton or €297.3/ton, and December futures fell by €2.75/ton to €251.5/ton or.296.1/ton, although they rose by €22.75/ton and € 19/ton, respectively, over the week.

Wheat prices on stock exchanges and physical markets will remain high this week in anticipation of new support factors, but the market will still decline amid low demand.