Purchase prices for oilseeds in Ukraine continue to grow
The delay in the maturation of soybeans and sunflowers in Ukraine against the background of lower forecasts of global oilseed production significantly supports purchase prices for soybeans, rapeseed and sunflower.
In the September report, USDA experts almost did not change the global balance for sunflower and left forecasts for its production in 2021/22 mg for Ukraine at the level of 17.5 million tons (14.1 million tons in 2020/21 MG), Russia – at the level of 15.5 million tons (13.3 million tons last year), the EU – 10 million tons and Argentina – 3.4 million tons.
Purchase prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine for the week increased by another 500-800 UAH/ton to 17000-18000 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant, but the volume of deliveries remains low.
As of September 10, only 344 thousand hectares of sunflower were threshed in Ukraine, or 5% of the area, from which 715 thousand tons were harvested with a yield of 2.08 t/ha. The yield in the central and western regions is much higher, so the forecast of 17.5 million tons looks quite realistic.
In Russia, as of September 10, out of 710 thousand hectares or 7.3% of the area, 1.1 million tons of sunflower were threshed with a yield of 1.55 t/ha, which is significantly lower than last year. Therefore, the harvest may be less than predicted by the USDA, which supports sunflower prices in Ukraine.
Purchase prices for soybeans in Ukraine also continue to grow due to the lack of supplies of the new crop and following world prices, which increased on the data of the new USDA report.
Exporters increased prices for soybeans with GMOs by 1 10-20/ton to 5 510-530/ton or 15500-16000 UAH/ton with delivery to the port, and processors – by 100-300 UAH/ton to 15800-16000 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant. Prices for non – GMO soybeans in ports increased by 1 10-20/ton to 6 630-650/ton or UAH 19200-19400/ton, and on the DAP basis, the border with Poland or Belarus-to 6 650-655/ton, while processors offer UAH 19,000/ton for it at the plant.
The forecast for World rapeseed production in my 2021/22 was reduced by 1.8 million to 68.17 million (72.28 million tons last year) due to another decrease in the canola crop in Canada by 2 million to 14 million tons (19 million tons last year) and rapeseed in the EU by 0.2 million tons to 16.8 million tons (16.25 million tons last year), which will be partially offset by an increase in production in Australia.
The export estimate for Canada was lowered by 1.1 million tons to 5.8 million tons, and for Australia it was increased by 0.55 million tons to 4 million tons. the forecast for rapeseed imports to the EU was lowered by 0.35 million tons to 4.85 million tons compared to 5.85 million tons in 2020/21 MG.
Canola prices on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange fell 3.5% on the eve of the report's release, but after publication they recovered 0.9% to 862 CAD/ton or 6 681/ton, as traders expected a more significant reduction in the harvest forecast for Canada.
At the same time, November rapeseed futures on Paris rose by, which supported the purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine, which fell to 20300-20400 UAH/ton or 6 670/ton for delivery to the port against the background of a reduction in the number of buyers, as many processors and traders switched to buying soybeans and sunflower.