Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine have slightly increased since the beginning of the year

Long New Year's holidays, as well as active corn exports, contributed to a decrease in corn stocks in ports, as well as an increase in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia - became the reasons for the increase in purchase prices for corn in Ukraine.

Additional support for prices is provided by rising oil prices, as well as forecasts of a decline in the corn crop in Argentina and Brazil due to dry conditions in the south of these countries.

February Brent crude futures rose 3.8% to року 81 a barrel since the beginning of the year, while March corn futures rose 1.3%, returning above the psychological level of 6 6/bushel or 2 236.6/ton.

March Black Sea corn futures also rose 2% to 2 280/ton in the first week of the new year, but yesterday quotes fell by 2 2/ton to.278/ton amid rising supply.

A sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate from 27.3 to 27.5 UAH/. also added about 1% to purchase prices for Ukrainian grain.

Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine have increased since the beginning of the year by 150-200 UAH/ton to 8250-8300 UAH/ton or 2 263-265/ton with delivery to the port.

Traders expect an increase in corn supplies from the new year, so they do not raise prices even against the background of delayed loading of ships due to bad weather.

As of January 10, Ukraine exported 11.77 million tons of corn, which is 15% more than a year ago, but the export rate remains low as the export forecast this season is increased by 30% compared to last season.

 March European corn futures on Euronext Paris remain stable at around €243/ton (€275.6/ton), amid low demand from the domestic market and exports, which puts strong pressure on the prices of Ukrainian corn.

 Corn exports from the United States for the week ended January 6 increased by 35% to 1.02 million tons.tons, and in general, since the beginning of the 2021/22 season, they have reached 14.08 million tons, which is 17.6% lower than last year's figure. The forecast for corn exports from the United States this year was lowered by 10% to 63.5 million tons, but to achieve this goal, shipments should reach 1.5 million tons per week.

 Ahead of the January reports of the US Department of agriculture, analysts expect a reduction in the forecast of corn production in Brazil by 1.8 million tons and by 900 thousand tons in Argentina, which will lead to a reduction in the forecast of World corn stocks by 2.1 million tons to 303.6 million tons, but still by 11 million tons will be higher than last season.

Traders have already taken into account the decline in production forecasts in South America, so traders will pay more attention to forecasts of corn and wheat sowing areas in the United States, as well as to the wheat balance, which may be bearish for the market.