The USDA forecast that soybean production will increase and consumption will decrease
In the may balance of supply and demand of soybean experts USDA increased the forecast of global oil production by 1.5 million tonnes to 362,06 million tonnes, primarily due to increased harvest in Argentina by 1 million tons to 56 million tons
the Forecast for world consumption was reduced by 1.8 million tonnes to 347,25 million tons due to reduced consumption in China by 2 million tonnes, which will reduce imports by 2 million tonnes to 86 million tonnes.
as a result of increasing production and reducing consumption world ending stocks of soybeans in 2018/19 MG will grow by 6.4 MT to 113.8 million tons.
compared To the previous season, world soybean production in 2018/19 MG will grow by 6%, and carryover stocks by 8%.
U.S. ending stocks of soybeans in 2018/19 MG will grow to of 27.09 million tons due to reduced soybean exports by 5% 51,03 to 48.3 million tons.
After the publication of a new report, the price of soybeans in Chicago dropped to a historic low of $8/bushel or 294,76 $/t and even a significant decrease in the forecast of soybean production in 2019/20 MG are unable to support them.
According to experts USDA, the increase in the initial stocks of soybeans in 2019/20 MG in comparison with the current season from 99 to 113,18 million tons will be offset by the reduction in global production 355,6 mln t and consumption growth to 355,42 million tons.
the Reduction in soybean production in the US in the new season compared to the current from 123,6 to 112,95 million tonnes is due to a reduction in the acreage to 84.6 million acres amid uncertainty with exports to China and decrease the yield of 49.5 bushels/acre. While soybean exports may rise from 48.3 to 53.1 million tonnes.
the Decrease of soybean production in the U.S. will be offset by increased harvest in Brazil up to 123 million tons.
According to the forecast of the USDA, China in 2019/20 MG will increase imports of soybeans for 1 million tons to 87 million tons of ASF continues to dominate the country.