According to the MARS forecast, cereal yields in the EU will exceed average, and in North Africa will decrease due to drought

2024-05-29 09:46:24
According to the MARS forecast, cereal yields in the EU will exceed average, and in North Africa will decrease due to drought

In the May report, Mars experts reduced the forecasts of crop yield in the EU compared to April estimates, but it will exceed the average indicators of the last 5 years. Against this background, quotations for wheat, corn and rape on the Euronex exchange decreased somewhat yesterday.

Estimates of the yield of winter crops for Spain and Portugal have been increased, but forecasts for Italy, Denmark, Hungary and some Western European countries have been lowered. Long rains in northern Italy, Denmark and other Western European countries have led to excess moisture in fields, the spread of pests and/or delayed sowing, which will have a negative impact on yields. In eastern Germany and Poland, the precipitation deficit has begun to decrease, but the amount of rain is not enough to produce good crops. Warm and dry weather in the south of Italy reduced grain filling in winter crops.

Yield of agricultural crops in Europe:

Culture

Productivity, c/ha

on average over the last 5 years

April forecast

for 2024

May forecast

for 2024

Cereal crops

54.8

56.2

56.2

Soft wheat

58.7

59.3

59.2

Durum wheat

34.4

34.7

34.5

Bright barley

40.9

43.2

43.4

Winter barley

59.1

59.7

59.8

Corn

73.4

75.7

75.9

Rye

41.6

42.9

42.8

Turnip

31.8

32.6

32.1

Sunflower

21.5

22.4

22.5

Soy

27.3

28.6

28.2

 

Drought has significantly reduced crop yields in western North Africa, particularly in Morocco and northwestern Algeria. Meanwhile, in the central and eastern coastal areas of Algeria, heavy rains in February combined with irrigation allowed crops to recover from dry conditions and accumulate above-average biomass.

In Tunisia, uniform precipitation in February and March against the background of moderate temperatures ensured rapid development of crops. In Libya, heat waves during the flowering period negatively affected the development of agricultural crops in the western coastal areas, while in the main agroregions in the northeast, biomass accumulation reached medium and even higher levels. In the main agrarian areas of Egypt, the weather was mostly favorable for crops.

Yield of grain crops

 

Culture

Forecast for

2024, ts/ha

On average for

5 years, ts/ha

Algeria

wheat

16.6

16.4

barley

11.6

11.3

Egypt

wheat

68.3

66.1

barley

39.2

38.4

Libya

wheat

7,8

7.7

barley

5.2

5.1

Morocco

wheat

12.3

16.1

barley

7,8

10.4

Tunisia

wheat

22.6

20.7

barley

12.2

11.8

 

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