According to COCERAL's forecast, the grain harvest in the EU and the UK will be 5% smaller than last year

Experts from the European association COCERAL have lowered their forecast for grain production in the EU and the UK in 2026 from 298.8 to 295.5 million tons compared to previous estimates (March), which will be 5% lower than the 311.3 million tons harvested in 2025.

At the same time, the forecast for soft wheat production has been increased from 142.6 to 143.7 million tons (150.8 million tons in 2025), since its yield in most regions of the EU will not be lower than average, although it will be inferior to the record figures of 2025. In France, despite the severe heat, no significant decrease in yield is expected, and in Germany, weather conditions are conducive to the development of winter crops.

The forecast for maize production has been reduced from 60.2 to 57.2 million tonnes (57.8 million tonnes in 2025). The average yield will be higher than in the dry 2025, but the total harvest will decrease due to a reduction in the area sown compared to last year from 8.4 to 7.8 million hectares. Over the past 10 years, the area under maize in the EU has decreased by more than 15%.

The forecast for barley production has been reduced from 59.3 to 58.8 million tons (63.8 million tons in 2025).

At the same time, the forecast for the turnip harvest has been increased by 0.4 million tons to 21.5 million tons (21.4 million tons in 2025), since the decrease in yield compared to the previous year will be compensated by an increase in the sown area from 6.4 to 6.8 million hectares.