Despite the "bearish" USDA report prices for soybeans rose
September report USDA the estimation of soybean yields for the U.S. increased from 51.6 to 52.8 bushels/acre, resulting in improved forecast soybean production at 2.9 million tons to 127.7 million tons, while other analysts have estimated it in the range of 126-130 million tons.
the Forecasts of exports and processing of soybeans in the U.S. have remained unchanged, so ending stocks in the current marketing year will grow.
World production of soybeans will increase by 2.2 million tonnes to 369,32 million tonnes, while consumption volume will remain at the level of 353 million tonnes, which will increase world ending stocks by 2.3 million tonnes to 108,26 million tons.
the forecast USDA that China will reduce soybean imports by 1 million tonnes to 93.5 million tonnes, which is contrary to the Ministry of agriculture of the PRC, which considers imports of soybeans will not exceed 83,65 million tons.
Global soybean exports will decline by 1 million tonnes to 156,9 million tonnes due to the reduction in sales by Canada and Uruguay.
After the publication of the report of the November soybean futures in Chicago rose by $4/t to 307,4 $/t as in trading strategies traders already priced in the increase in yield in the United States. Prices were supported by data on positive margins received by Chinese processors even after payment of the 25% import duty on U.S. soybeans.
This suggests that prices for U.S. soybeans have dropped to a minimum level and may soon go to a rise in the event of adverse weather conditions in South America or the progress of a trade dispute with China.