Domestic rapeseed prices fell after the introduction of a 10% export duty for all exporters, but traders are raising prices again

The Ukrainian government has not yet resolved the situation with agricultural producers paying a 10% duty on soybean and rapeseed exports, and customs have begun collecting duties from all exporters. Therefore, those exporters who have already delivered the cargo to the port have paid the duty, while others have suspended the execution of currency contracts until the situation is resolved.

The temporary halt to rapeseed exports last week sharply increased supply on the domestic market, so processors immediately reduced purchase prices by UAH 1,000-2,000/t to UAH 22,000-22,500/t with delivery to the plant.

But this week, exporters recovered from customs problems and resumed purchasing rapeseed, setting prices in hryvnia at 23,000-23,300 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and raising foreign exchange prices to $540-546/t, which intensifies competition with processors.

Reduced rapeseed supplies from Ukraine and Australia support rapeseed quotes in Paris, which rose by 2.2% to €470/t or $554/t over the week, despite increased production forecasts in Canada, Australia, the Russian Federation, and Moldova.

USDA experts have lowered the forecast for rapeseed production in Ukraine by 0.2 million tons to 3.3 million tons (which corresponds to official harvest data), and the export forecast by 0.2 million tons to 2.75 million tons, although due to problems with customs, exports this season will not exceed 2 million tons.

According to the European Commission, in the 2025/26 MY (as of September 7), the EU reduced rapeseed imports by 52% compared to last year, in particular from Ukraine by 70.2% to 179 thousand tons, Australia by 61.8% to 134 thousand tons, increasing supplies from Moldova by 114% to 90 thousand tons. At the same time, Ukraine's share in the EU market decreased compared to the previous season from 58% to 36.3%, Australia from 34% to 27.4%, and Moldova's share increased from 4.1% to 18.3%.

It is expected that in 2025/26 the EU will reduce rapeseed imports to 5.7 million tonnes.

Recall that in the 2024/25 MY, the EU increased rapeseed imports compared to the previous season by 31% to 7.447 million tons, in particular from Australia - by 87.7% to 3.51 million tons, from Canada - by 999% to 1.13 million tons, reducing supplies from Ukraine by 23.7% to 2.41 million tons. Then, Australia's share in the market grew from 33% to 47.1%, Canada's - from 1.8% to 15.2%, and Ukraine's decreased from 55.6% to 32.4%.