Domestic rapeseed prices in Ukraine are rising following sunflower prices

Prolonged rains delayed the harvest of sunflower and soybeans in Ukraine, leading to rising sunflower prices and increased demand for rapeseed from processors as an alternative raw material.

 

The mechanism for exporting rapeseed and soybeans without paying duties has not yet been regulated, so rapeseed exports have not fully recovered, which allows processors to actively buy up existing volumes.

 

According to experts' forecasts, domestic rapeseed processing this season will exceed 1 million tons, while in the 2024/25 MY, according to the Ukroliyaprom association, only 0.5 million tons or 14% of rapeseed production was processed in Ukraine, and another 3.1 million tons were exported.

 

It is noted that rapeseed oil exports last season amounted to 210.4 thousand tons, of which 153.5 thousand tons were shipped to EU countries and 48.3 thousand tons to China.

 

Against the backdrop of a decline in the forecast for the sunflower harvest, processors increased their demand prices for it by UAH 500/t to UAH 28,000–28,500/t ($590–600/t excluding VAT) during the week, and for rapeseed by UAH 500/t to UAH 24,000–24,500/t ($510–520/t excluding VAT).

 

Export prices for rapeseed remained at 23,300–23,600 UAH/t ($540–550/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports, as customs require payment of 10% duty in the form of a guarantee, and only then accept the conclusions of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and other documents as proof that the exporter is an agricultural producer.

 

In the 9 days of October, Ukraine exported only 8 thousand tons of rapeseed compared to 48 thousand tons in the 9 days of September and 210 thousand tons in the 9 days of October 2024.

 

November rapeseed quotes in Paris rose 1.6% to €469.75/t ($544/t) over the week, while Canadian canola prices remained at CAD608/t ($433/t).

 

In Canada, canola has been harvested on 89% of the area in Saskatchewan as of October 7, in Alberta - on 92% of the area, and in Manitoba - on 92%. Frost and snowfall predicted for the coming days may damage some of the unharvested crops.

 

The reduction in the potential for rapeseed exports from Ukraine caused by the introduction of tariffs will support rapeseed quotes in Paris in the coming month, especially against the backdrop of uncertainty with exports from Australia to the EU due to increased supplies to China.