War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply

Last week, wheat prices on US exchanges rose by another 3-3.6% amid dry weather in March, which is worsening the condition of winter wheat crops, and the prolongation of the war with Iran, which will lead to an increase in the cost of fertilizers and a decrease in yields in the new season.

In Kansas, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition fell by 6% to 40% over the week, but the overall U.S. crop report will not be released until Monday, when a more detailed assessment will be possible. Forecasts of increased precipitation in the U.S. wheat regions are limiting price gains.

During the week, May wheat futures rose:

• by 2.9% to $223/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (+5.7% per month),
• by 3.6% to $230.1/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+8.3%),
• by 3.3% to $239.6/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+6.2%),
• by 0.7% to €203.75/t or $233.7/t - for wheat on Euronext in Paris (+1.1%).

The USDA will release its first official U.S. wheat acreage forecast today, which will have a significant impact on future crop prices, which are currently trading higher than the old crop. Analysts predict that U.S. wheat acreage for the 2026 crop will fall by 544,000 acres to 44.79 million acres.

Wheat exports from the US in the 2025/26 MY (from June 1 to March 29) amounted to 20.295 million tons, which is 16.7% higher than the previous season, but to meet the USDA forecast, about 4.2 million tons more need to be shipped in the next two months, which will be difficult to do given the rise in prices for American wheat.

In Ukraine, during the week, export purchase prices for food wheat remained at the level of 10,850–11,000 UAH/t or 220-222 $/t, and for feed wheat at the level of 10,600-10,700 UAH/t or 212-214 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

The offer prices of Ukrainian wheat with a protein content of 11.5% are $237/t FOB - Black Sea ports, and Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% - $243-245/t FOB - Novorossiysk, and are under pressure from a decrease in demand due to the blockade of the Persian Strait.

Ukraine exported 9.94 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 MY (as of March 30), which is 30.8% lower than last year's pace. To achieve the USDA forecast, another 3.5 million tons of wheat need to be shipped over the next three months of the season, which looks quite realistic.

Wheat exports from the EU in the 2025/26 MY (as of March 24) increased by 6% compared to the previous season to 17.14 million tons, but to reach the USDA forecast of 30.5 million tons, another 13.3 million tons of wheat need to be shipped in the last three months of the season, which will be difficult to do due to increased competition in the market.