Russia's exit from the grain agreement will create problems for its exports, not Ukrainian exports

The authorities of the Russian Federation stated that the Ukrainian military, under the cover of the humanitarian corridor, carried out massive air and naval strikes with unmanned aerial vehicles on the infrastructure and ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. As a result, Russia is withdrawing indefinitely from the grain agreement on unblocking the export of food from the southern ports of Ukraine, concluded with the mediation of the UN and Turkey.

In yesterday's address, the President of Ukraine replied that Russia's statements about striking the Sevastopol Bay with drones launched from grain trucks moving along the grain corridor are the "fiction of sick people" who are more interested in exacerbating the food crisis than in fulfilling their own agreements. Therefore, it is unlikely that the world community will be able to convince Russia to continue the grain agreement.

According to the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, as of October 30, the movement of 218 vessels participating in the "Grain Initiative" was blocked, namely:

• 95 loaded ships that have left the ports of Ukraine and are awaiting inspection for departure to their destination,
• 101 vessels awaiting inspection to enter the ports of Ukraine,
• 22 loaded ships waiting to leave the ports.

Ukraine, as one of the parties to the grain agreement, did not violate any of its requirements, and did not stop the movement of goods through the grain corridors, even despite the shelling of the port and energy infrastructure by the Russians. In addition, 15 cases of Russian UAVs and aircraft approaching the prohibited distance to civilian ships involved in the Grain Initiative were recorded.

However, in fact, the Russian Federation began to block grain corridors back in September, artificially delaying and reducing the number of inspections, as a result of which a queue of 176 vessels loaded with 2.1 million tons of agricultural products was formed. This confirms the intentions of the Russian Federation to provoke famine in the poor countries of Africa and Asia, as well as to increase the food shortage in the world.

On the morning of October 31, the Istanbul Joint Coordination Center published a statement on the approval by the UN, Ukraine and Turkey of the plan to move 16 ships through the grain corridor, about which the parties warned the Russian Federation.

Currently, Russia cannot block the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, as its ships risk being attacked by Ukrainian missiles or naval drones, and it does not dare to attack civilian ships of foreign countries. Therefore, it can intensify missile attacks on the port infrastructure, but the presence of foreign ships there should become a deterrent to such attacks.

It is worth noting that Turkey and the UN signed an agreement with Russia on the promotion of the export of Russian grain and good, so a unilateral exit from it will make it difficult to export Russia's record grain harvest, which is 20% higher than last year.