Lack of progress in negotiations and the risk of a US ground operation against Iran continue to push oil prices higher

The US-Israeli war against Iran has been going on for 30 days, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran's main lever of influence on the US and the global economy, as it worsens traders' sentiment and reduces hopes for a quick end to the conflict.

May Brent crude futures rose another 4.2% to $112.8/barrel on Friday (+0.7 for the week, +60% since the start of the war) amid uncertainty over the unblocking of oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf. The US stock market has accelerated its decline in shares, and only the owners of shares of 500 companies included in the S&P 500 have lost, according to analysts' estimates, about $4 trillion in capitalization during the month of the war.

Crude oil prices also rose after Ukraine's successful strikes on Russia's northern oil terminals, which will reduce Russian crude oil exports and further restrict global oil supplies.

Pakistan held talks with Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia over the weekend, where it brokered a ceasefire in the Iran war, with initial discussions focusing on proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

On Saturday, Iran allowed 20 Pakistani ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in gratitude for mediating talks with the United States. Pakistan's deputy prime minister called the move a "harbinger of peace" on the X network and singled out Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President J.D. Vance and U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who are negotiating on behalf of the United States along with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

On Saturday, Yemen's Houthis said they were entering the war on Iran's side, and in the event of a ground operation, the United States would block shipping in the Babel-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. This would deal another devastating blow to the global economy, as the route for moving goods by sea, bypassing Africa, is dozens of times longer and more expensive compared to the route from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.

Amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has brought oil pumping through a key pipeline connecting the east and west of the country and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz to full capacity - 7 million barrels/day and ensured the loading of about 5 million barrels/day of oil from the port of Yanbu, which has partially offset the consequences of the energy crisis.

At the same time, the US continues to prepare a force scenario to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, for which another 5,000 marines are expected to arrive within a week, although Trump has given Iran until April 6 to conclude a peace agreement.

A power split is occurring in Iran as the IRGC forces (fanatics of the Ayatollah regime) continue to fight, while the civilian authorities (the president and speaker of parliament) call for a peace deal to save the country from total destruction.

The UAE authorities have revoked the residence permits of all Iranian citizens, including holders of “golden visas.” Iranian media outlets have reported that “the UAE appropriated Iranian assets worth about $530 billion, deceiving them with the promise of a “99-year residence permit,” and now, without the slightest explanation, is unilaterally revoking their residence permits.” This includes about 500,000 Iranians who have already lost their visas but are still in the country. In addition, the UAE may block all transactions with Iran through its banks and the flow of sanctioned goods if Iran continues to bombard it.