Resumption of stock market quotes supports corn prices in Ukraine

Since the beginning of the week, corn quotes in Chicago have increased by 2.3%, almost completely recovering the previous week's decline caused by the improvement in the global balance. Prices were supported by the delay in sowing and increased demand for American corn, which remains the cheapest on the market, which, in turn, stopped the decline in prices in Ukraine.

 

May corn futures in Chicago rose 1.8% yesterday to $176.8/t (+0.8% for the week, -0.7% for the month) on forecasts of heavy rainfall next week in the central and eastern parts of the US "corn belt", which, although will replenish moisture reserves, may lead to a significant delay in sowing.

 

Due to forecasts of a reduced US corn harvest in 2026, December corn futures in Chicago are trading at $188.2/t, $11/t more expensive than May.

 

The sharp fluctuation in world oil prices has failed to support corn prices as the war with Iran has reduced demand. Also weighing on prices is an increase in Argentina's corn crop forecast to 67 million tonnes, well above the USDA's forecast of 52 million tonnes and other analysts' forecasts of an increase to 62 million tonnes.

 

The Brazilian agency Conab also predicts that Brazil's corn harvest this season will reach a record 139.6 million tons , which is 7.6 million tons higher than the USDA forecast.

 

June corn futures on the Paris exchange fell 0.5% to €204.5/t or $241/t over the week, with November futures trading €1/t lower at €203.5/t due to a possible increase in sowing areas and harvest in the EU.

 

In Ukraine, export prices for corn decreased by 50-100 UAH/t at the end of last week, but since Monday they have increased again by 50-100 UAH/t to 10,650-10,700 UAH/t or $214-216/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. The decrease in freight costs contributes to the growth of export prices, so traders are actively purchasing.

 

Demand prices for corn from the EU remain at 194-195 €/t or 225-227 $/t FCA - European wagons at the western border, which, taking into account transshipment, corresponds to the price level in ports.

 

In 11 days of April, Ukraine exported 526 thousand tons of corn (700 thousand tons in the same period last year), and the main buyers were Turkey (265 thousand tons) and Italy (148 thousand tons), as well as Spain, the Netherlands, Tunisia and Belgium. Total exports in the 2025/26 MY amounted to 14.8 million tons, which is 19% lower than last year's pace. By the end of the season, about 7 million tons more need to be exported, which will be possible if the war in Iran ends and ship traffic resumes in the Persian Gulf, where some of the key buyers of Ukrainian corn are located.

 

In Argentina, as of April 10, corn has been threshed on 22% of the area (23% last year), as rains are delaying work, although they are improving the condition of late crops, so harvest forecasts remain at 57-67 million tons (compared to 50 million tons in the previous season).

 

Offer prices for Ukrainian corn remain at $230/t FOB - Black Sea ports, but prices for Argentine and American corn are $210-215/t FOB, which limits demand for Ukrainian grain.

 

The increase in the cost of fuel and fertilizers will greatly influence the decisions of farmers in the USA and Ukraine regarding the area of corn sowing, so prices for the new corn crop will definitely be higher, and speculative growth will begin even on weather factors during the sowing period in May - June.