September wheat futures fell 3-11% for the week and are trading 30-51% lower than last year

Wheat quotations on world exchanges fell to record low levels against the background of weak export demand caused by a good domestic harvest in importing countries. Traders paid attention to the increase in the wheat harvest in the USA by 5 million tons (compared to the previous season), but did not react to the decrease in production forecasts for the EU by 7 million tons, Ukraine by 1.5 million tons, and the Russian Federation by 8.5 million tons .

During the week, September futures fell another 3-11% and are trading 30-51% lower than last year. At the same time, December futures are traded 5-8% more expensive, which indicates traders' hopes for increased demand in the second half of the season.

September futures fell on Monday:

• by 0.9% to $183/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-6% for the week, -37% for the year),
• by 1% to $192.9/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-3%, -41%),
• by 1.9% to $199/t - HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis (-11.7%, -51%)
• by 2.6% to €189.5/t or $211.6/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-6.9%, -30%).

So far, the market has not reacted to the positive data on exports and the deterioration of spring wheat crops in the USA.

During the week of August 16-22, the export of wheat from the USA grew by 44% to 537.2 thousand tons, and in total in the season it amounted to 5.146 million tons, which is 27.7% higher than last year's pace. As of August 25, spring wheat in the US was harvested on 51% of the area (53% on average over 5 years), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 4% to 69% (37% last year).

In FY 2024/25 (as of August 23), Ukraine exported 3.09 million tons of wheat, which is almost double the 1.6 million tons for the same period in FY 2023/24 thanks to lower wheat prices at the beginning of the year than competitors season

Export purchase prices in Ukraine remain at UAH 9,200-9,400/t or $195-200/t for food wheat and UAH 8,200-8,300/t or $174-175/t for feed wheat, but traders have reduced purchases due to reduced demand.

Prices of offers of Russian wheat with a protein of 12.5% do not fall below $220/t FOB even despite the decrease in exports, which allows US farmers to increase exports of soft American wheat, which is currently the cheapest on the world market.