In Ukraine, purchase prices for soybeans accelerated growth following global ones

In the first four months of the 2021/22 season, global soybean prices fell under pressure from higher crop forecasts in South America due to the expansion of sowing areas. This reduced export demand for Ukrainian soybeans and allowed processors to increase their purchases and maintain a minimum premium compared to export prices.

However, the December drought in Argentina and southern Brazil reduced crop forecasts in the main producing countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) to 186.3 million tons, compared with 196.6 million tons in the January forecast of the USDA and 200 million tons in October.

Precipitation over the past two weeks in Argentina and southern Brazil has improved the state of crops and crop prospects, but traders do not expect an increase in production and are actively buying soybeans, which keeps quotes at a high level.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 2.3% to 5 529/ton yesterday, adding 5.8% of the price over the past 10 days on dry weather forecasts in Argentina in the next 1-2 weeks and following an increase in vegetable oil prices.

Export prices for Ukrainian soybeans with GMOs for the week increased in ports by 1 10-15/ton to 5 525-535/ton, and Hryvnia, due to a sharp drop in the exchange rate, reached UAH 17,000-17,300/ton, while processors increased prices by UAH 300-500/ton to UAH 16,700-17,000/ton with delivery to the plant.

For non-GMO soybeans, exporters offer 635-650 $/t or 20500-21000 UAH/t with delivery to the port or border, while processors pay no more than 20000-20500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, as they face problems selling processed products to Europe, the market of which is oversaturated with cheaper soybean meal and soybeans from South America.

Against the background of increased demand from exporters, manufacturers stepped up sales, which had previously been held back in anticipation of price increases.

Brazil is accelerating soybean harvesting, and will soon provide updated data on the crop, whose forecasts are again being raised due to good weather in the central regions of the country, where most soybeans are grown.

Increased supplies of new crop soybeans from South America in the spring against the background of an increase in sunflower supplies from Ukraine and Russia and forecasts of palm oil production may lead to an oversaturation of the world market with oilseed offers and lower prices for them.