Corn prices are rising in Ukraine, while global corn prices remain under pressure from increased production forecasts

The increase in the number of vessels chartered by traders for November and December increased the demand for corn in Ukraine, but farmers do not want to sell grain at low prices, so buyers have to raise their purchase prices every day.

During the week, purchase prices for corn rose by another $5-10/t to $140-145/t or UAH 5,600-5,700/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and $150-155/t to Danube ports, but producers restrained sales in anticipation of further price growth.

On November 17, 24 million tons of corn were harvested from 77% of the areas in Ukraine with a yield of 7.24 tons/ha, which confirms the optimistic harvest forecasts at the level of 30 million tons.

The pace of corn exports is inferior to last year. Thus, in 2023/24 MR, as of November 16, only 4.87 million tons of corn were exported (8.25 million tons for this period last year) out of the 20 million tons predicted by the USDA. Active export of corn from Brazil, which shipped 8 million tons in October of grain, restrains supplies from the USA and other exporting countries.

IGC experts raised the forecast for world corn production in FY 2023/24 by 4 million tons to 1.223 billion tons, while the USDA estimates it at 1.22 billion tons.

In the November report of Stratégie Grains, the forecast for corn production in the EU in 2023/24 was raised by 400,000 tons to 61 million tons (52.4 million tons in 2022/23), primarily for France.

December corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange traded at $187/t this week (-3% on the month), supported by dry weather in central Brazil that could reduce the future corn crop.

March corn futures on the Paris exchange during November were traded at the level of €206/t or $223/t (-1% for the month).

A decrease in oil prices by 4% in the near future will increase the pressure on global corn prices, especially against the background of reduced demand for fuel as a result of the slowdown in the world economy.