In anticipation of the USDA report, analysts have released their predictions

2020-04-09 12:23:55
Machine translation
In anticipation of the USDA report, analysts have released their predictions

Before the publication of the updated WASDE balance of supply and demand leading analytical agencies gave their own predictions.


According to the average estimate of the survey The Wall Street Journal, in 201920 MG in comparison with forecasts Mar in the US carry-over stocks


soybeans – will increase by 4.5% to 12 million tonnes, which is significantly worse than 24.7 million tons, of the 2018/19 season,

wheat will remain at the level of 25.7 million tons, which will yield 29.4 mln tons of the 2018/19 season.

  • corn will increase by 5% to 50.5 million tonnes, which will yield 56.9 million tonnes of the 2018/19 season,


at the same time in comparison with the estimates of March, world carryover stocks


soybeans – reduced by 0.5% to 101,9 million tons, considerably concede to 111.9 million tons 2018/19 Mr,

wheat will remain at 287 million tonnes, which will exceed 277,6 million tons 2018/19 Mr.

  • corn to increase by 0.4% to 298,5 million tonnes, which will give 320,8 million tons of the 2018/19 season,


Analysts also see the harvest of soybeans and corn in Brazil and Argentina, which is almost complete, so you can quite realistically estimate the results.


Experts believe that in the April report to Brazil's forecast corn production compared to the March estimates will be reduced by 0.7 million tonnes from 101 to 100.3 million tonnes (101 million tonnes in 2018/19 MG), and soy – 1.8 million tonnes with 126 to 124.2 million tons (117 million tons in 201819 MG).


it is Also expected that for Argentina, the forecast corn production will be reduced from 50 to 49.7 million tons (51 million tons in 2018/19 MG), and soybeans – from 54 to 52.7 million tons (55.3 million tons in 2018/19 MG).


the Forecast of soybean exports for the United States can be revised, as China is now actively buying cheaper Brazilian soybeans, although at present the rate of exports higher than last year. Increasing the supply of South American soybeans on the back of lower demand from China could sharply reduce soybean exports from the U.S. in the second half of the season.

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