In the USDA oil balance sheet, the production forecast was lowered and the reserve estimate was raised

USDA's November oil balance sheet for the 2022/23 FY has undergone minor changes - the global production forecast has been reduced by 1 million tons to 645.6 million tons (which will be 6.8% higher than the 2021/22 FY), and the estimate of ending stocks has been increased by 1 .38 million tons (by 7.4% will exceed the indicator of 2021/22 MR) as a result of the adjustment of initial balances.

Soybean and canola prices edged higher on the bearish report, but eased yesterday and will remain under pressure until the South American soybean harvest is released.

Compared with the October report, the following changes have been made to the new oil balance for 2022/23 MR:

• The global production forecast was reduced by 1 million tons to 645.6 million tons (604.51 million tons in 2021/22 MR), in particular soybeans - by 0.46 to 390.53 (355.59) million, sunflower - by 0, 7 to 51.3 (57.32) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 0.4 million tons to 10.1 (17.5) million tons and the EU - by 0.22 million tons to 9.475 (10.25) million tons. At the same time, for rapeseed, the estimate was increased by 1 million tons to a record 84.82 (73.86) million tons due to the increase in the harvest in the EU and Australia.
• The estimate of world processing was reduced by 0.3 million tons to 534.36 (511.85) million tons.
• The forecast of global ending stocks was increased by 1.38 million tons to 121.94 (113.55) million tons as a result of the revision of the balance for 2021/22 MR, in which the estimate of ending stocks was increased by 2.4 million tons.

In the new soybean balance for 2022/23 MR:

• The global production forecast was reduced by 0.46 million tons, in particular for Argentina due to a reduction in the area of sowing - by 1.5 million tons to 49.5 (43.9) million tons. At the same time, for the United States, due to improved yields, the production estimate was increased by 0.89 to 118.27 (121.53) million tons.
• The ending reserves estimate was raised by 1.65 million t to 102.17 million t, and the opening reserves estimate by 2.29 million t to 94.67 million t due to reduced use in Argentina, China and Brazil.

According to the data of the report, stock market quotations fell in two days:

• January soybean futures in Chicago - by 1.4% to $523.6/t (+1.6% for the month),
• February rapeseed futures in Paris - by 1.7% to 637 €/t (-2.2% for the month).