The USDA again lowered its forecasts for global wheat production and inventories in my 2021/22
In the November supply and demand report, USDA experts continued to lower their forecasts for wheat production and inventory in my 2021/22, and although this was expected for the market, the final inventory forecasts were even lower than analysts had predicted, which will continue to support prices.
The forecast of initial World wheat stocks for 2021/22 MG was lowered by 0.41 million tons to 287.95 million tons (295.5 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 280.7 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to the revision of production and consumption levels in the balance sheet for 2020/21 MG tons.
The forecast for global wheat production in 2021/22 MG was lowered by 0.59 million tons to 775.28 million tons (774.66 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 763.5 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to lower estimates for the EU by 1 million tons to 138.4 million tons (126.01 million tons in 2021/21) and the UK by 0.7 million tons to 14.3 million tons (9.66 million tons in 2019/20 MG). 2021/21), but USDA experts finally raised the forecast for wheat production in Russia of 2 million tons to 74.5 million tons (85.35 million tons in 2021/21), which offset the decline in other countries. It is worth noting that data on harvesting in Russia show that about 78 million tons have been threshed, and local analysts estimate the harvest at the level of 76-76.5 million tons.
The forecast for global wheat consumption in my 2021/22 was raised by 0.4 million tons to 787.42 million tons (782.21 million tons in my 2020/21 and 748.33 million tons in my 2019/20) due to a decrease in wheat consumption in the EU, Great Britain, Ukraine and Uzbekistan, but will be offset by an increase in consumption in Russia, Iran and Turkey.
The forecast for world wheat trade was raised by 3.5 million tons to a record 203.2 million tons due to an increase in the forecast for exports from the EU by 1 million tons to 36.5 million tons, India by 1 million tons to 5 million tons, Russia by 1 million tons to 36 million tons, and Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 24 million tons, while for the United States it was lowered by 0.4 million tons to 23.41 million tons due to low export rates. It is worth noting that the official forecast for wheat exports from Russia remains at 33.5 million tons, while local analysts show forecasts at 34 million tons due to low export rates at the beginning of the season.
The estimate of global final wheat stocks in 2021/22 MG was reduced by 1.4 million tons to 275.8 million tons (287.95 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 299.22 million tons in 2019/20 MG), which was lower than market expectations, the average estimates of analysts showed a decrease to 276.5 million tons.
The report's data provided new support for wheat quotes on stock exchanges that have been declining for the last 3 sessions and December wheat futures on Paris Euronext yesterday rose by 2.25 €/ton to 286 €/Ton (3 331.3/ton), and December futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago rose by 3.86 € /ton to 286. /ton.
