USDA again improves global soybean balance, increasing price pressure

In its July report, the USDA once again raised its estimates of global soybean beginning and ending stocks, as well as its production forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year. At the same time, it lowered its export and import forecasts, which only adds to the pressure on stock prices.

July soybean futures in Chicago fell 0.9% to $368.9/t on Friday (–3.8% after the June report), and November futures fell 0.6% to $370/t (–2%).

In the balance for 2024/25 MY, the USDA increased the forecast for world production by 1.2 million tons, in particular due to an increase in the harvest in Argentina by 0.9 million tons to 49.9 million tons. At the same time, imports from China were reduced by 1.5 million tons, and exports from Brazil by 2.4 million tons. In contrast, exports from Argentina increased by 1.9 million tons due to increased supplies to China, and imports from Turkey increased by 0.5 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 0.9 million tons.

Soybean prices are expected to remain under pressure. The USDA estimates a potential record harvest in Brazil at 175 million tonnes, but according to Brazilian agency Safras & Mercado , the harvest could reach 179.88 million tonnes due to an increase in planted area by 576,000 hectares to 48.2 million hectares.

According to the USDA forecast, in the 2025/26 season, Ukraine will harvest a record 7.6 million tons of soybeans.