USDA raises forecasts for global corn production and stocks again

In the December corn balance sheet, USDA experts again, as in the previous two reports, raised the forecast for global corn production, as well as initial and final stocks in 2021/22 MG,but stock prices in Chicago rose, contrary to the report.

December corn futures in Chicago rose yesterday by 1 1.48/ton to 2 231.7/ton, and March – by.1.77/ton to. 233/ton, which is the highest level since July. The U.S. corn balance was unchanged, although analysts had expected lower export forecasts and higher inventories.

The new report increases the yield estimate (as well as exports) for Brazil by 1 million tons, and by 2.68 million tons for the EU in the 2020/21 season, as a result of which initial reserves in my 2021/22 will grow by 0.82 million tons to 292.69 million tons.

Forecast world-class production corn in 2021/22 MG increased by 4.11 million tons to 1208.73 million tons, which is 85.93 million tons higher than the harvest of 2020/21 MG.

For Ukraine, the production estimate was increased by 2 million tons to 40 million tons (35.89 million tons in my 2020/21), for the EU – by 2.5 million tons to 70.35 million tons (67.09 million tons), while for China it was reduced by 0.45 million tons to 272.55 million tons (260.67 million tons), taking into account official data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture.

Forecast global consumption corn due to the active use of ethanol in production increased by 3.81 million tons to 1195.88 million tons, which is 59.48 million tons higher than in 2020/21 MG.

Forecast world exports increased by 1.39 million tons to 204.86 million tons, including for Ukraine – by 1.5 million tons to 32.5 million tons (23.86 million tons in 2020/21 mg), for the EU – by 0.5 million tons to 4.9 million tons (3.72 million tons).

Forecast global imports corn in my 2021/22 was increased by 2.03 million tons to 185.45 million tons, which is 1.03 million tons lower than in the previous season. The import estimate was increased for Iran, Egypt, the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia, while for China it was left at 26 million tons, and for the EU – at 15 million tons, although the import rate is still lower than last year.

Due to the increase in supply forecast final World reserves corn in 2021/22 MG increased by 1.12 million tons to 305.54 million tons, although analysts estimated them at 304.4 million tons, and this is 12.85 million tons higher than in 2020/21 MG.

The bearish nature of the new report will increase pressure on corn prices, especially in the second half of the season, when a good corn harvest in South America is confirmed. However, in Ukraine, prices have been falling since December, and will continue to fall as production and export forecasts increase.