USDA lowers corn production and stock forecasts for 2025/26 MY, but prices continue to fall

In its July report, the USDA again lowered its forecast for corn production and global stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year. The main reason is a data correction for the United States. Despite this, stock market quotes have fallen again - traders are reacting more to political news, including Trump's promises to impose new tariffs on countries importing American corn, including the EU and Mexico.

On Friday, July corn futures on the CBOT fell 1% to $158.7/t (–7.9% since the June report), and December corn futures fell to $162.3/t (–5.7%).

In the balance for the 2024/25 MY, the USDA increased the estimate of the corn harvest in Brazil by 2 million tons to 132 million tons - in line with the forecasts of local analysts. At the same time, global consumption increased by 2.6 million tons, which caused a decrease in stocks by 0.82 million tons - contrary to market expectations. The forecast for US exports was sharply increased - by 2.55 million tons to 69.85 million tons (versus 57.3 million tons in the 2023/24 MY).

For the 2025/26 MY, the US corn harvest forecast has been reduced by 2.92 million tonnes to 398.93 million tonnes due to reduced plantings. Consumption has also been reduced by 1.27 million tonnes to 323.48 million tonnes, while exports remained unchanged at 67.95 million tonnes. Ending stocks have been reduced to 42.17 million tonnes – although this is still 8.1 million tonnes more than in 2024/25.

For Ukraine, the forecasts remain unchanged: production — 30.5 million tons, exports — 24 million tons.

World ending corn stocks in the 2025/26 MY have also been reduced - contrary to analysts' expectations, who predicted their growth to 277.5 million tons.

Despite these changes, prices remain under pressure as favorable weather in the US and China currently supports expectations of a good harvest. However, the critical phase of corn development - flowering - falls in July-August, so subsequent weather will be crucial.