USDA downgrades South American soybean crop forecast less than analysts expected

In the New Balance of supply and demand, USDA experts, as in January, continued to lower forecasts for the soybean harvest in South America due to the drought in the southern regions. However, the estimate was lowered less than analysts expected. In addition, forecasts for soybean consumption and imports for China were lowered, which will increase pressure on oilseed prices in the near future.  

Compared to the January report, the New World balance sheet for oilseeds for my 2021/22 made the following changes::

• Forecast world-class production oilseeds decreased by 7.69 million tons to 611.48 million tons (603.63 million tons in my 2020/21) due to a decrease in soybean yields in Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, which partially compensates for the increase in rapeseed production in India.
• Forecast world exports oilseeds decreased by 6.12 million tons to 188.28 million tons (190.98 million tons in my 2020/21) due to reduced supplies from Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay.
• Rating global final reserves reduced by 2.59 million tons to 104.73 million tons, which is 9.15 million tons lower than last year's figure due to a reduction in soybean and rapeseed stocks.

Soybean balance for my 2021/22, compared to the January report, they changed significantly:

• The forecast of initial reserves was raised by 0.54 million tons to 100.42 million tons (95.6 million tons in 2020/21 MG).
• The production estimate was lowered by 8.7 million tons to 363.86 million tons (366.23 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 339 million tons in 2019/20 MG), in particular for Brazil – by 5 million tons to 134 million tons (138 million tons), which almost corresponds to analysts ' estimates of 133.65 million tons, for Argentina – by 1.5 million tons to 45 million tons (46.2 million tons). 44.5 million tons, for Paraguay – by 2.2 million tons to 6.3 million tons (9.9 million tons).
• The consumption forecast was lowered by 5.76 million tons to 369.17 million tons (363.05 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to a reduction in processing volumes in Brazil and Argentina, as well as consumption in China by 3 million tons. 
• The export forecast was lowered by 5.7 million tons to 165 million tons (164.26 million tons in 2020/21 MG), in particular for Argentina – by 1.1 million tons to 3.55 million tons (5.19 million tons), Brazil – by 3.5 to 90.5 million tons (81.65 million tons), Paraguay – by 1.1 to 4.15 million tons (6.3 million tons).
• China's estimate of soybean imports was lowered by 3 million tons to 97 million tons (99.76 million tons in my 2020/21) due to reduced consumption by livestock breeders.
• The forecast for final reserves was lowered by 2.37 million tons to 92.83 million tons, which is 7.59 million tons lower than in my 2020/21 due to reduced reserves in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and the United States.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday rose 1.6% to 5 585.7/ton, adding 15% of the price for the month.

The forecast for global rapeseed production in my 2021/22 was increased by 1.3 million tons to 70.62 million tons (73.2 million tons) due to an increase in the harvest in India.

While the forecast for global sunflower production was left at 57.257 million tons (49.3 million tons in 2020/21 MG).