The USDA lowered its soybean crop forecast, but raised its forecast for canola production
In the January report, USDA experts almost did not change the forecast of world production of soybeans, as the decrease in the harvest in Brazil was compensated by its increase in Argentina, the United States, China, the Russian Federation, Bolivia and Paraguay.
In comparison with the December estimates, the January soybean balance for 2023/24 MR has undergone the following changes:
- The estimate of initial reserves remained at the level of 101.87 (98.03) million tons.
- The forecast of world production was increased by 0.1 to 398.98 (375.4) million tons, in particular for Argentina by 2 to 50 (25) million tons (while the Rosario Exchange increased its forecast to 52 million tons against the background of favorable weather), USA – by 0.95 to 113.3 (116.32) million tons thanks to the increase in productivity, Paraguay – by 0.3 to 10.3 million tons, China – by 0.3 to 20.8 (20.28) million t, the Russian Federation - by 0.4 to 6.8 million tons, while for Brazil the estimate was reduced by 4 to 157 (160) million tons due to dry and hot weather in the central states. At the same time, analysts estimate the harvest in Brazil at 156.3 million tons, and the local agency CONAB reduced its forecast by 5 to 155.3 million tons.
- The global export forecast was increased by 0.65 to 170.94 (171.56) million tons, in particular for Paraguay and the Russian Federation, but the estimate for Brazil was not changed, despite the reduction in production.
- The forecast of world imports was increased by 0.7 to 168.35 (164.84) million tons, but the estimate for China was left at the level of 102 (100.85) million tons.
- The estimate of global ending stocks was increased by 0.3 to 114.6 (101.87; 99.7 and 100.3) million tons, while analysts estimated them at 111.58 million tons. For the United States, the estimate was increased by 1 million tons, Argentina - by 1.4 million tons, and for Brazil it was reduced by 1.8 million tons.
According to the report, March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 1% to $453.5/t (-7.1% compared to the data after the December report).
USDA experts increased the forecast of world rapeseed production in 2023/24 MR by 0.1 to 87.1 (88.82) million tons, but left the export estimate unchanged.
The forecast of world production of sunflower in 2023/24 MR was reduced by 1.26 to 55.54 (52.38) million tons, in particular for Argentina – by 0.2 to 4.3 million tons, the EU – by 0.45 to 10, 2 million tons, the Russian Federation - by 0.4 to 17.1 million tons (although Rosstat estimates the harvest at 16.7 million tons), while for Ukraine the estimate was left at the level of 14.5 million tons. In addition, the forecast for sunflower imports was lowered to Turkey by 100,000 tons, and exports from Argentina by 50,000 to 150,000 and the Russian Federation by 100,000 to 450,000 tons. For Ukraine, the export forecast was left at the level of 500,000 tons. 15 million tons
