The USDA lowered its forecast for global oilseed production, but raised it for sunflower

In the December balance sheet, USDA experts lowered their forecast world production of oilseeds crops in 2021/22 MG by 0.45 million tons to 627.58 million tons (603.57 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to a decrease in the soybean crop in China and Paraguay and rapeseed in Canada, which will be partially offset by an increase in the rapeseed crop in Australia and sunflower in Ukraine and Russia.

Forecast world oilseed exports in my 2021/22, it was increased by 0.53 million tons to 196 million tons (190.87 million tons in my 2020/21), as a result of which the estimate of World Final reserves was reduced by 1 million tons to 114.13 million tons.

Soybean balance for my 2021/22, it has changed significantly compared to November:

• initial inventory forecast lowered by 0.3 million tons to 99.81 million tons,
• the production estimate was lowered by 2.32 million tons to 381.78 million tons (366.23 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 339 million tons in 2019/20 MG), in particular for China – by 2.6 million tons to 16.4 million tons,
• the consumption forecast was lowered by 1 million tons to 377.03 million tons (363.05 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to a reduction in consumption by China,
• the estimate of Final reserves was reduced by 1.78 million tons to 102 million tons, in particular for China – by 1.61 million tons to 34.08 million tons, which is 0.4 million tons lower than in the previous season.

The forecast for soybean imports by China was left at 100 million tons, compared with 99.76 million tons in 2020/21 MG. For Ukraine, the estimate of soybean production was increased by 0.3 million tons to 3.7 million tons, and exports – by 0.15 million tons to 1.85 million tons, while for Russia the harvest was estimated at 4.8 million tons, and exports – at 1.25 million tons.

January soybean futures on the Chicago SWOT rose to вчора 463/ton yesterday, in line with the previous month's level.

Forecast world rapeseed production in my 2021/22, it was increased by 0.85 million tons to 68.35 million tons (72.66 million tons in my 2020/21) due to an increase in the harvest estimate in Australia to a record 5.5 million tons.

Forecast world sunflower production in my 2021/22, it was increased by 1.04 million tons to 57.04 million tons (49.11 million tons in my 2020/21) due to increased crop estimates in Ukraine and Russia.

For Ukraine, the estimate of the average yield in 2021 was increased compared to the November report from 2.43 to 2.54 t/ha (2.5 t/ha according to the estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine), and the estimate of areas before harvesting – up to 6.9 million hectares, so the production forecast was increased by 0.5 million tons to a record 17.5 million tons. the forecast for sunflower exports from Ukraine was left at 350 thousand tons, although during September – November only 34 thousand tons were exported compared to 115 thousand tons for the corresponding period in 2020.

For Russia, compared to the November report, the yield estimate was increased from 1.61 to 1.62 t/ha, the forecast of areas before harvesting – from 9.3 to 9.6 million hectares, and production – from 15 to 15.5 million tons.

For Argentina and the EU, sunflower production forecasts remained unchanged at 3.4 and 10.15 million tons, respectively.

An increase in sunflower production forecasts will increase pressure on purchase prices, as oil buyers will reduce activity in anticipation of a drop in prices in January – February, when the crop from South America enters the market.