The USDA lowered its forecast for global oilseed production, but raised its estimate of Final stocks

2021-10-13 12:06:24
Machine translation
The USDA lowered its forecast for global oilseed production, but raised its estimate of Final stocks

In the October balance sheet, USDA experts lowered their forecast world production of oilseeds crops in 2021/22 MG by 0.92 million tons to 628.24 million tons (602.29 million tons in 2020/21 MG). The decrease in the estimated yield of canola in Canada by 1 million tons and sunflower in Ukraine by 0.5 million tons and Russia by 0.5 million tons compensates for the increase in the soybean crop in the United States by 2 million tons.

 

Due to a decrease in the processing margin in China, the forecast for global processing was lowered by 2 million tons to 526.23 million tons (508.34 million tons in 2020/21 MG). After raising the estimate of initial reserves from 109.68 to 113.32 million tons due to a decrease in consumption in 2020/21 MG, the forecast of Final reserves was also increased by 5.25 million tons to 116.5 million tons.

 

Soybean balance for 2021/22 MG changed compared to September estimates as follows:

  • the forecast of initial reserves was raised by 4.08 million tons to 99.16 million tons,
  • the production estimate was increased by 0.72 million tons to 385.14 million tons (365.26 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 339 million tons in 2019/20 MG), including for the United States by 2 million tons,
  • consumption forecast reduced by 1.1 million tons to 377.27 million tons (362.56 million tons in my 2020/21),
  • the forecast for final reserves was raised by 5.68 million tons to 104.57 million tons, including 3.67 million tons for the United States.

 

For the United States, due to an increase in soybean yield estimates from 50.6 to 51.5 bushels/acre (50.2 bushels/acre in 2020/21 MG), the production forecast was raised to 121.06 million tons, which is 6.31 million tons higher than last year.

 

For China, the estimate of initial and final reserves was increased by 0.9 million tons due to a reduction in the volume of processing in 2020/21 MG by 1 million tons to 93 million tons, which in the current season may amount to 98 million tons.

 

November soybean futures at Chicago SWOT fell 2.5% to.440/ton yesterday under pressure from a new report and data on harvesting in the United States, where soybeans are threshed on 49% of the area, compared with 40% on average in 5 years.

 

Forecast world rapeseed production in my 2021/22, it was reduced by 0.83 million tons to 67.357 million tons (72.5 million tons in my 2020/21), taking into account a decrease in the canola crop in Canada by 1 million tons to 13 million tons (19 million tons in my 2020/21).

 

November rapeseed futures on Paris Euronext fell another 9.25 €/ton to 641.25 25 €/ton or 7 740.7/ton, losing 26.25 € / ton in three sessions.

 

Forecast world sunflower production in my 2021/22, it was reduced by 1.1 million tons to 55.855 million tons (49.14 million tons in my 2020/21). Due to low yields, production estimates were reduced for Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 17 million tons (14.1 million tons in 2020/21 mg) and Russia by 0.5 million tons to 15 million tons (13.3 million tons last year), while they were left unchanged for the EU at 9.95 million tons, Argentina – 3.4 million tons, Turkey – 1.8 million tons.