USDA lowered its forecast for global wheat consumption and exports, including for Ukraine, and sharply increased its estimate of global stocks, which increases pressure on quotes

In the April supply and demand report, USDA experts raised their forecast for global wheat production and ending stocks in the 2025/26 MY, lowering their estimates for consumption and exports due to the war in Iran, to which stock prices responded by falling.

Compared to March estimates, the world wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for world wheat production has been increased by 2 million tons to 844.15 million tons (800.43 million tons in the 2024/25 MY), in particular for the EU - by 1.1 million tons to 145.1 (121) million tons and the Russian Federation - by 0.8 million tons to 90.3 (81.6) million tons.
• The forecast for global wheat consumption has been reduced by 4.7 million tons to 820.1 (810.24) million tons, in particular for India - by 4.8 million tons to 107.7 (109) million tons.
• The forecast for world exports has been reduced by 0.3 million tons to 221.9 (210.47) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 1 million tons to 12.5 (15.75) million tons and Australia - by 0.5 million tons to 26.5 (23.65) million tons. At the same time, estimates for the Russian Federation have been increased by 1 million tons to 44.5 (43) million tons and Kazakhstan - by 0.5 million tons to 11 (10.2) million tons. At the same time, the estimate for exports for the EU has not been changed, although it is significantly lower than the forecast, so in the coming months we expect additional adjustments to exports for the EU as well.
• The forecast for world imports has been reduced by 0.4 million tons to 217.6 (201.3) million tons, primarily for North African countries, and estimates for Southeast Asian countries have also been increased, while forecasts for the Middle East countries have been left unchanged, which will also be adjusted in subsequent reports due to the closed Persian Gulf.
• The forecast for ending stocks has been sharply increased by 6.2 million tonnes to 283.1 (259.63) million tonnes, mainly due to increased estimates for India by 4.8 million tonnes, Australia by 0.5 million tonnes, Ukraine by 0.8 million tonnes to 3.93 (0.93) million tonnes and the EU by 0.5 million tonnes to 16.18 (11.1) million tonnes.

After the report was released, May wheat futures fell:

• by 1% to $211.1/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (-1.8% after the release of the March report);
• by 0.9% to $217/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1%);
• by 0.9% to $227.2/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-0.6%);
• by 1.2% to €195.5/t or $228.6/t - for wheat on Euronext in Paris (-4.3%).

It is worth noting that world wheat stocks will exceed last year's by 24 million tons, which will allow even in the event of a decrease in the harvest in the new season to obtain a good balance of wheat, so the prices for the new harvest are almost the same as the prices for the old harvest.