USDA lowered its forecast for world corn stocks and the EU corn harvest, which supported quotes

In the July WASDE report, USDA experts lowered their estimate of ending global corn stocks for both the 2025/26 MY and 2026/27 MY seasons, which led to a further increase in quotes.

The main reason for the decline in the EU production forecast was dry conditions in France and Hungary.

September corn futures in Chicago rose 1.9% to $173/t on Friday (+6.7% since the June report), and December futures rose 2% to $181.5/t (+4.9%).

November corn futures in Paris rose by 2.7% to €238.75/t or $272.5/t (+16.2% since the June report).

In the new world corn balance for 2025/26 MY, USDA experts increased the forecast for world corn consumption by 5.95 million tons to 1.3252 billion tons (1.25126 billion tons in 2024/25 MY), so even an increase in world production by 1 million tons to 1.3277 billion tons (1.233 billion tons in 2024/25 MY) due to an increase in the harvest estimate in Argentina by 2 million tons to 63 million tons (49 million tons in 2024/25 MY) did not help world ending stocks, the estimate of which was reduced by 4.63 million tons to 298.7 million tons (296.2 million tons).

The forecast for world exports for the 2025/26 MY has been increased by 3.66 million tons to 220.66 (187.3) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 1 million tons to 23 million tons, as well as for Argentina, the Russian Federation, South Africa and the EU.

The world corn balance for the 2026/27 MY compared to June estimates has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for initial stocks has been reduced by 4.63 million tons to 298.7 million tons (295.98 million tons in 2025/26 MY).
• The forecast for world corn production has been reduced by 3.29 million tonnes to 1.297.1 billion tonnes, which is 30.6 million tonnes less than the expected harvest for the current season. The forecast for the EU has been reduced the most - by 3.72 million tonnes to 53.78 (56.8) million tonnes, while Coceral experts have reduced their forecast for corn production in the EU and the UK by 4.5 million tonnes to 52.7 million tonnes.
• The global consumption forecast has been reduced by 2 million tonnes to 1.3205 billion tonnes (1.325 billion tonnes), mainly due to reduced consumption in the EU.
• The forecast for world corn imports has been increased by 4.4 million tons to 204 million tons (196.7 million tons), in particular for the EU - by 3 million tons to 22.5 (18.5) million tons, as well as for Kenya, Iraq, Jordan and Tunisia.
• The forecast for world corn exports has been increased by 2.27 million tons to 209.88 million tons (220.7 million tons), including for the USA - by 1.3 million tons to 81.3 (84.5) million tons, and Canada - by 1.1 to 3 (2.1) million tons. It should be noted that USDA experts expect an increase in corn imports by EU countries mainly from the USA and Canada, and not from Ukraine.
• The forecast for world ending corn stocks has been reduced by 6 million tons to 275.3 million tons (298.7 in 2025/26 MY and 296.1 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the USA - by 4.3 to 45.5 (51.3) million tons, China - by 1 to 165.1 (177.1) million tons, Ukraine - by 0.5 to 2.06 (2.25) million tons.

The forecast for corn production and exports for Ukraine in the 2026/27 MY has been left unchanged - at 30 (30.9) million tons and 23 (23) million tons, respectively.

Weather conditions in major exporting countries remain favorable, with sufficient precipitation, but the main focus will be on the weather in Ukraine in late July - August, when a new heat wave will arrive, which could reduce crop potential.