USDA lowers global wheat stock forecast, but prices remain under pressure
The USDA's June report unexpectedly raised its global wheat consumption and export forecasts, leading to a lower estimate of ending stocks . Despite this, stock prices fell by 0.4-1.5% as demand remains weak and July data is likely to be revised down.
Main changes in the forecast for 2024/25 MY:
|
Indicator |
June 2024 |
May 2024 |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Beginning stocks |
268.96 million tons |
269.11 million tons |
-0.15 |
|
World production |
799.91 million tons |
799.71 million tons |
+0.20 |
|
World consumption |
804.9 million tons |
803.62 million tons |
+1.28 |
|
World exports |
205.91 million tons |
206.12 million tons |
-0.21 |
|
Ending stocks |
263.98 million tons |
265.21 million tons |
-1.23 |
Changes in the forecast for 2025/26 MY:
|
Indicator |
June 2024 |
May 2024 |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Beginning stocks |
263.98 million tons |
265.21 million tons |
-1.23 |
|
World production |
808.59 million tons |
808.52 million tons |
+0.07 |
|
World consumption |
809.8 million tons |
808.0 million tons |
+1.8 |
|
World exports |
214.33 million tons |
212.99 million tons |
+1.34 |
|
Ending stocks |
262.76 million tons |
265.76 million tons |
-3.0 |
What is important:
- The forecast for exports from the Russian Federation was increased by only 0.5 million tons , despite expectations of a reduction.
- India and the EU received production forecasts upgrades.
- China's harvest remained unchanged, despite the drought - this may be reviewed in the next report.
- The weather in the USA, EU, Ukraine and the Russian Federation is currently favorable , so importers are not in a hurry to make purchases - a further decrease in prices is expected.
