The USDA raised its corn production forecasts for the US and Ukraine, which compensates for the decline in the harvest in Brazil

The main attention of traders in the January report was focused on forecasts of a decline in the corn crop in Brazil and Argentina, and it turned out that the US Department of Agriculture cut forecasts even more than analysts expected, but at the same time unexpectedly raised the level of production in the United States and Ukraine, which compensated for the loss and made the report neutral - quotes began to decline.

Forecasts of a reduction in corn exports from the United States, as well as the official forecast for a reduction in corn consumption, will continue to put pressure on corn prices as harvesting approaches in South America, especially against the background of increased precipitation. March corn futures in Chicago fell below the psychological level of 6 6 per bushel (2 235/ton) yesterday, which is still slightly higher than a month ago.

In the January report on corn supply and demand in my 2021/22, USDA experts made the following changes compared to December:

- the forecast for global production was lowered by 1.77 million tons to 1206.96 million tons, which is already 87.25 million tons higher than the 2020/21 mg harvest, including 3 million tons in Brazil. tons (analysts expected -1.8 million tons) to 115 million tons against 87 million tons last season and in Argentina by 0.5 million. tons (0.9 million tons). tons) to 54 million tons (50.5 million in 2020/21), but at the same time increased the estimate for Ukraine by 2 million tons to a record 42 million tons (35.89 million tons in 2020/21 mg) and for the United States by 1.35 million tons to 383.94 million tons;

- the forecast for global corn consumption is slightly increased by 0.24 million tons to 1196.12 million tons, which is 60.31 million tons higher than in 2020/21 due to an increase in consumption in the United States by 2 million tons due to an increase in ethanol production in Ukraine by 1 million tons. but experts did not take into account the data that the Ministry of Agriculture of China lowered its forecast for corn consumption in China by 2 million tons to 290 million tons against 294 million tons in the January USDA report due to a slowdown in demand for feed grain due to falling pork prices;

- the forecast for world exports was lowered by 0.6 million tons to 204.2 million tons, due to a decrease in exports from the United States by 1.9 million tons to 61.6 million tons against almost 70 million tons last season, but increased for Ukraine – by 1 million tons to 33.5 million tons (23.86 million tons in 2020/21 MG). At the same time, export forecasts from Brazil and Argentina remained at the same levels of 43 and 39 million tons (against 19 and 39.5 million tons in 2020/21), which promises serious competition between these countries in the second half of the season, especially with a decrease in consumption by China;

- the forecast for global imports was raised by 1.36 million tons to 186.81 million tons, due to the growth of imports to Mexico and Canada, while the estimate for China and the EU was left unchanged, although the import rate is still lower than last year;

- the forecast of final World reserves was lowered by 2.47 million tons to 303.07 million tons, which corresponds to analysts ' forecasts at 303.6 million tons, and will be 3.2 million tons higher than in 2020/21 MG.

The bearish nature of the report will increase pressure on corn prices, especially in Ukraine, so NAC. the board monitors the weather in South America and accelerates sales while prices recover at a high level of about 2 265-270/ton with delivery to the port.