The USDA raised its forecast for global corn production and stocks, which led to a drop in prices
The USDA's October corn balance sheet once again surprised the market with unexpected estimates. USDA experts also increased the forecast of world production, as well as initial and final corn stocks in 2021/22 MG.
As a result of the decrease in the estimate of World corn production in the balance sheet for 2020/21 MG by 1.6 million tons to 1115.5 million tons and the estimate of consumption by 5.11 million tons to 1131.61 million tons. initial inventory for my 2021/22, it was increased by 3.27 million tons to 289.99 million tons.
Forecast world-class production corn in my 2021/22 was again increased by 0.45 million tons to 1198.22 million tons (1115.1 million tons in my 2020/21), in particular for the United States by 0.56 million tons to 381.5 million tons (358.4 million tons in my 2020/21 and 385.2 million tons in the July report), for the EU – by 0.8 million tons to 66.3 million tons (64.4 million tons Canada – by 0.4 million tons to 14 million tons (13.56 million tons), which partially compensated for the decrease in the harvest forecast for Ukraine by 1 million tons to 38 million tons (30.3 million tons) and Russia by 0.5 million tons to 15 million tons (13.87 million tons).
Traders ' attention is focused on the balance of corn in China. Recently, due to heavy downpours, the government lowered the production estimate by 0.85 million tons to 271 million tons, and the representative of the USDA FAS in China lowered the forecast for corn imports by 6 million tons to 20 million tons.
Forecast global consumption corn was reduced by 0.16 million tons to 1186.46 million tons, which is already 54.85 million tons higher than in 2020/21 MG after adjusting the balance sheet for last season.
Rating global imports corn decreased by 2.1 million tons to 183.85 million tons due to a reduction in imports by Southeast Asian countries by 1.6 million tons to 17.3 million tons amid an increase in feed wheat consumption.
Forecast world exports increased by 0.64 million tons to 201.91 million tons, in particular for the United States – by 0.63 million tons to 63.5 million tons (69.9 million tons in 2020/21 MG), the EU by 0.3 million tons to 4.1 million tons and slightly for India, which partially compensates for the decline in the forecast for Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 31.5 million tons (23.8 million tons) and Russia by 0.3 million tons to 4.5 million tons.
Rating global final reserves corn increased by 4.11 million tons to 301.74 million tons, which will exceed the average forecast of analysts – 298.76 million tons and 11.75 million tons exceed the indicator of 2020/21 MG.
A bearish USDA report and data on active corn harvesting in the United States, where 41% of the area is threshed, compared with 31% on average for 5 years, collapsed December corn futures by 1.9% to 2 205.7/ton.
Brazil has stepped up sowing and as of October 6, 44.4% of the planned areas have already been sown with corn, compared to 40.9% last year, which will increase pressure on prices against the background of favorable precipitation.