The USDA has raised its forecast for world consumption and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks

Russia's war against Ukraine has a strong impact on world agricultural markets, while the impact of USDA's monthly reports has declined sharply. Buyers still prefer cheap Russian wheat and refuse to buy expensive European and American wheat, despite financial sanctions and payment and insurance problems.

In the April balance, USDA experts raised estimates of initial stocks, world production and consumption of wheat, but sharply lowered world trade forecasts, which will lead to a reduction in final stocks.

Compared to the March report, the new balance of wheat for 2021/22 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial stocks increased by 0.4 million tons to 290.67 million tons (296.83 million tons in 2020/21 MY and 280.7 million tons in 2019/20 MY), in particular for Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia.
• The forecast of world production increased by 0.3 million tons to 778.83 million tons (776 million tons in 2020/21 MY and 763.5 million tons in 2019/20 MY), in particular for Argentina - by 0.5 million tons to 21 (17.64 and 19.75) million tons, which corresponds to the estimates of local analysts. At the same time, the harvest forecast for the EU was reduced by 0.6 million tons to 138.42 (138.9 and 134.2) million tons.
• The estimate of world consumption was immediately increased by 3.8 million tons to 791.1 million tons (782.5 million tons in 2020/21 MY and 748.33 million tons in 2019/20 MY) due to increased use of wheat in India from state reserves for the program distribution of food by 4.4 million tons to a record 107.9 million tons.
• The forecast of world exports was sharply reduced by 3 million tons to 200.11 million tons (202.6 million tons in 2020/21 MY), primarily for the EU by 3.5 million tons to 34 (29.74 million tons) due to weak exports , Ukraine - by 1 million tons to 19 (16.8) million tons due to port blockades, for the United States - by 0.4 million tons to 21.36 (26.7) million tons due to high non-competitive prices. At the same time, the export forecast for Russia was increased by 1 million tons to 33 (39.1) million tons, Argentina - by 0.5 to 14.5 (11.53) million tons, Brazil - by 0.8 to 2.5 (0) , 9) million tons.
• The estimate of imports was reduced by 4.12 million tons to 197.15 million tons (194.18 million tons in 2020/21 MY).
• The forecast of the world's final reserves was reduced by 3.1 million tons to a 5-year low of 278.4 million tons (290.27 million tons in 2020/21 MY and 299.22 million tons in 2019/20 MY), in particular for India - on 4.4 million tons to 25.42 (27.8 and 24.7) million tons. However, increased the forecast of stocks for the EU by 1.78 to 11.36 (10.69 and 13.11) million tons.

After a week's fall in May wheat futures in the US on Friday rose:

• 3% or $ 11.57 / t to $ 386.4 / t for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• 3.4% or $ 13.23 / t to $ 406.7 / t for winter winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2.5% or $ 10.2 / t to $ 414.2 / t for durum HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Black Sea wheat in Chicago fell by $ 1.5 / t to $ 390.75 / t.

May wheat futures on Paris' Euronext rose 9 € / t to 372.75 € / t or $ 406.6 / t, adding 2% for the week.