USDA raised corn acreage forecasts and cut soybeans and wheat, but stocks are well above last year's

USDA's quarterly U.S. seeded area and old-crop stocks reports, released on the last Friday of June, usually come as a surprise to traders. This year, analysts' estimates again fell short of USDA's projections, especially for acreage.

Despite high inventories and low prices, U.S. farmers increased corn acreage and decreased soybean and wheat acreage, although the market expected more acreage under high-margin crops.

NASS USDA estimates that 91.475 million acres of U.S. corn will be planted in 2024 (94.6 million acres in 2023, 88.6 million acres in 2022, and 93.3 million acres in 2021), a 1.5 million increase acres would exceed WASDE's forecast for March and June and by 1.1 million acres, the average analyst estimate of 90.35 million acres. As of the day of the survey (June 16), 3.356 million acres remained unseeded, the second highest since the report was released in 2020.

Soybean acreage was estimated at 86.1 (83.6; 87.5 and 87.2) million acres, which was 0.4 million acres below the March and June forecasts, although analysts had expected an increase to 86.75 million acres.

Wheat planting area will be 47.24 (49.6 and 45.8) million acres, which is 0.25 million acres lower than March and June forecasts, although analysts had expected them to increase to 47.67 million acres.

Stocks of the old harvest in the USA as of June 1 were:

• corn - 126.8 million tons (104.3 million tons in 2023, 110.4 million tons in 2022 and 104.4 million tons in 2021), while analysts estimated them at 123.8 million tons,
• soybeans - 35.64 (21.66; 26.4 and 20.9) million tons, against the analysts' estimate of 26.2 million tons,
• wheat - 19.1 million tons (15.5 million tons in 2023), while analysts estimated them at 18.6 million tons.

The prices of soybeans and wheat almost did not react to the data of the reports, and the prices of corn fell by 3%.

On the exchange in Chicago, futures fell in price:

• July corn futures - by 4.2% to $156.5/t (-11.7% for the month, $218.3/t last year),
• November corn futures - by 3.2% to $165.8/t (-10% for the month, $194.8/t last year),
• July soybean futures - by 0.1% to $423/t (-3% for the month, $572.2/t last year),
• November soybean futures - by 0.1% to $405.7/t (-5.4% for the month, $493.6/t last year).