The USDA sharply lowered its forecast for wheat production and inventories in my 2021/22
In the October report, USDA experts sharply lowered forecasts for wheat production and stocks in 2021/22 MG, which was an unexpected surprise for the market, but so far has not affected quotes.
In the wheat balance sheet for my 2020/21, the estimate of world wheat production was reduced by 1.1 million tons to 774.74 million tons, consumption was increased by 0.3 million tons to 781.17 million tons, and reserves in Iran were reduced by 3.6 million tons due to the revision of production data starting from my 2017/18. Because of this, the forecast of initial wheat stocks in 2021/22 MG was reduced by 4.2 million tons to 288.36 million tons (294.8 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 280.77 million tons in 2019/20 MG).
The forecast for global wheat production in my 2021/22 was lowered by 4.41 million tons to 775.87 million tons (774.74 million tons in my 2020/21 and 763.5 million tons in my 2019/20) due to a decrease in estimates for the United States by 1.39 million tons to 44.79 million tons, Canada by 2 million tons to 21 million tons, Kazakhstan by 0.5 million tons to 12 million tons, which compensates for an increase in estimates for the EU by 0.4 for Ukraine, Russia, China and India, crop estimates remained unchanged, although experts expected them to be adjusted in accordance with harvesting data.
The forecast for global wheat consumption in my 2021/22 was lowered by 2.58 million tons to 787.05 million tons (781.17 million tons in my 2020/21 and 748.33 million tons in my 2019/20) due to a decrease in wheat consumption for feed.
The forecast for world wheat trade is almost unchanged, although for India the export forecast was increased by 0.5 million tons to 4 million tons, Australia – by 0.5 million tons to 23.5 million tons and the EU – by 0.5 million tons to 35.5 million tons, while for Canada it was immediately lowered by 2 million tons to 15 million tons.
The estimate of global final wheat reserves in 2021/22 MG was reduced by 6.04 million tons to 277.18 million tons (288.56 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 299.22 million tons in 2019/20 MG), which surprised analysts, who estimated them at 280.8 million tons.
Wheat quotes on the US and European stock exchanges reacted to the report's data with a slight increase, as traders understand that the balance sheet indicators are preliminary and for Russia, crop estimates will be adjusted upwards.