USDA sharply reduced the estimate of US wheat plantings and increased it for soybeans, which supported quotes

Yesterday, the USDA released its final report on US sowing areas for the 2026/27 MY, in which it increased the estimate of soybean areas compared to March data, but significantly reduced the estimate of wheat areas, which supported wheat quotes.

Thus, compared to the March forecast, the estimate of sowing areas has been changed as follows:

• all types of wheat – reduced from 43.775 to 42.74 million acres (analysts' estimate 43.86 million acres), which will be 6% lower than last year's 45.3 million acres, in particular winter wheat – by 0.89 million acres to 31.52 million acres (1.62 million acres less than last year), spring wheat – by 0.03 to 9.39 million acres, durum wheat – by 0.12 to 1.83 million acres;
• soybeans – increased by 0.66 million acres to 85.36 million acres (analysts' estimate is 85.37 million acres), which will be 5.1% higher than last year's 81.2 million acres.

At the same time, the estimate of corn sowing areas in the US was left at 95.34 million acres (analysts' estimate of 95 million acres), which will be 3.6% lower than last year's 98.8 million acres.

Based on the report, futures in Chicago rose yesterday:

• by 1.6% to $216.5/t – September futures for soft winter SRW wheat,
• by 0.5% to $420.3/t – November soybean futures,
• by 1.4% to $171.6/t – December corn futures.

Also yesterday, the USDA released a report on quarterly grain inventories in the United States as of June 1, 2026.

Compared to last year, inventories increased:

• wheat – by 7.6% to 25 million tons (analysts’ estimate – 25.5 million tons),
• corn – by 14% to 134.5 (137.6) million tons,
• soybeans – by 5.3% to 28.9 (28.5) million tons.

Information about the increase in inventories somewhat limited the growth of quotes.