USDA forecasts global oilseed and vegetable oil production to increase by 2% in 2025/26 MY

In the May report, USDA FAS experts presented the first global oilseed balance for the 2025/26 MY, in which they forecast an increase in global oilseed production compared to the previous season by 2.2% from 677.16 to 692 million tons, which will exceed the 2023/24 MY figure by 5.2%.
Global soybean production is expected to increase by 6 million tonnes to 426.8 million tonnes, driven by a good harvest in Brazil, sunflower by 4 million tonnes to 56.2 million tonnes amid recovery in production in the EU, Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and rapeseed by 4.5 million tonnes to 89.56 million tonnes, driven by increased production in the EU, Canada and the Russian Federation, offsetting lower rapeseed yields in Ukraine, the US and the UK.
According to the USDA forecast, the volume of global oilseed processing in 2025/26 MY will grow by 3.3% to 580.5 million tons due to increased soybean processing and the restoration of sunflower and rapeseed processing volumes by both oilseed producing and importing countries.
World trade in oilseeds will increase by 3%, as increased soybean supplies offset a 4% decrease in rapeseed supplies caused by reduced imports to the EU amid the recovery of domestic production.
Global ending stocks of oilseeds will increase compared to the previous season from 141.3 to 143.2 million tons (136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
Global production of vegetable oils will increase by 3% to almost 235 million tons, in particular sunflower oil - by 9% to 21.9 million tons (mainly in Ukraine and the EU), palm oil - by 3% to 80 million tons (in Indonesia and Malaysia), soybean oil - by 3.2% to a record 70.8 million tons (in China, the USA, Argentina and Brazil).