USDA forecasts US wheat harvest in 2026 at a significantly lower level than analysts, so quotes rose by 5.5-7% per day

In the first wheat harvest forecast for the 2026/27 MY, USDA experts greatly surprised the market with pessimistic estimates of the US wheat harvest, which led to a sharp increase in wheat stock quotes.

After the report was released, July wheat futures rose:

• by 7% to $249.5/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (+18.2% after the release of the April report and +31.8% for the year),
• by 6.6% to $268.7/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+23.8%, +44%),
• by 5.5% to $266/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+17%, +24%),
• by 3.9% to €216.5/t or $265/t - for wheat on Euronext in Paris (+11%, -3%).

The US Department of Agriculture, in its May WASDE report, estimated US wheat production in 2026 at 42.48 million tons, which is 5 million tons lower than the average estimate of analysts, in particular winter wheat - at 27.5 million tons, while the expectation was 33 million tons. This led to panic on the stock exchanges and a sharp increase in quotes.

The assessment of the state of crops in the main wheat-producing states in the US is 227 points, which is the lowest indicator for this week since 2000.

Compared to April estimates, the world wheat balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

The forecast for global wheat production has been reduced by 0.31 million tons to 843.84 million tons, and the forecast for global wheat consumption has been increased by 3.42 million tons to 823.52 million tons, as a result of which the estimate of ending stocks has been reduced by 3.9 million tons to 279.21 (258.9) million tons, which increases pessimism on the eve of the new season.

USDA experts predict that in the 2026/27 MY, world wheat production will decrease by 24.78 million tons compared to the previous season to 819.06 million tons, in particular in the USA – by 11.5 million tons to 42.49 million tons, in the EU – by 9.1 to 136 million tons, in Argentina – by 6.9 to 21 million tons, in Australia – by 6 to 30 million tons, in Canada – by 5 to 35 million tons, in the Russian Federation – by 4.3 to 86 million tons, in Kazakhstan – by 4.8 to 14.5 million tons, in Ukraine – by 1.1 to 23 million tons, which will be partially offset by an increase in production in India by 3 to 121 million tons and in China – by 1 to 141 million tons. It should be noted that the wheat harvest in the main exporting countries will decrease by 32 million tons compared to the 2025/26 MY. so.

Global wheat consumption in the 2026/27 MY is expected to remain at the previous season's level of 823.2 million tonnes, but global wheat imports will increase by 17 million tonnes to 218.3 million tonnes, and exports by 13 million tonnes to 223.7 million tonnes.

Due to a decrease in initial stocks and wheat production, world ending stocks of wheat in 2026/27 MY will decrease to 275.04 million tons, which will be 4 million tons lower than the 2025/26 MY level, but 16 million tons higher than the 2024/25 MY level.

The global wheat balance for the 2026/27 MY looks quite good overall, despite the lower US harvest forecast. It is important to recall that in May 2025, the USDA estimated the global wheat harvest at 808.5 million tons (compared to today's 819 million tons), and then increased the estimate throughout the season against the backdrop of favorable weather conditions in various countries.