USDA predicts sharp growth in global oilseed production in 2026/27 MY

In their May report, USDA FAS experts made almost no changes to the world oilseed balance for the 2025/26 MY, and the main focus was on the first harvest estimate for the 2026/27 season.

 

The forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased to a record 718.1 million tons, which will exceed the 2025/26 MY figure by 19.6 million tons (686.65 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 657.5 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular soybeans - by 13.9 to 441.54 million tons, sunflowers - by 7 to 61.78 million tons, rapeseed - by 1.4 to 96.89 million tons, which compensates for the decrease in cotton harvest by 3 million tons to 39.25 million tons.

 

Global oilseed processing is forecast to grow by 4% to 606 million tonnes in 2026/27 (585.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, 568.8 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 543.74 million tonnes in 2023/24) due to increased soybean processing in the US, Brazil, China and Argentina, sunflower processing in Ukraine, the EU, the Russian Federation and Argentina, and increased canola processing in Canada.

 

World ending stocks of oilseeds in 2026/27 MY are estimated at 146.7 million tons (146 million tons in 2025/26 MY, 144.3 million tons in 2024/25 MY, and 136.1 million tons in 2023/24 MY), which will restrain further price growth.

 

Global soybean production in 2026/27 MY is expected to grow to 441.5 million tons, in particular in the USA - by 4.7 to 120.7 million tons, in Brazil - by 6 to 186 million tons due to increased sowing areas, as well as in Paraguay, the Russian Federation and China, while production will decrease in Canada, Argentina, Ukraine and Uruguay.

 

July soybean futures in Chicago rose 1.1% to $450.8/t after the report was released (+5.3% after the April report), with November futures trading $8/t cheaper.

 

The forecast for global sunflower production has been increased to 61.78 million tons (54.74 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 53 million tons in 2024/25 MY), in particular for the Russian Federation - up to 19.2 (17.5 and 16.9) million tons, Ukraine - up to 13.5 (11 and 13) million tons, the EU - up to 9.9 (8.7 and 8.7) million tons, and Argentina - up to 8 (7 and 5.6) million tons.

 

In Ukraine, sunflower prices, after reaching the maximum level of the season of 33,500-34,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant at 50% oil content (which is 2,500 UAH/t higher than last month), have now decreased to 31,600-32,500 UAH/t under the pressure of falling oil prices.

 

The forecast for world rapeseed production in 2026/27 MY has been increased to 96.89 (95.5 in 2025/26 MY and 86.25 in 2024/25 MY) million tons, in particular for the EU – up to 20.7 (20.5 and 17) million tons, Canada - 22 (22 and 19.2) million tons, China - 16.2 (16 and 15.8) million tons, India - 12.4 (12 and 11.5) million tons, Australia - 6.2 (7.68 and 8.5) million tons, Ukraine – up to 4 (3.5 and 3.8) million tons.

 

In Ukraine, an increase in rapeseed processing volumes from 1.1 to 2 million tons and a decrease in its export volumes from 2.2 to 2 million tons is forecasted against the backdrop of increased processing.

 

Yesterday, August rapeseed futures in Paris rose 1.4% to €522/t or $615/t (+5% month-on-month), while July canola futures in Winnipeg rose 1.3% to CAD754/t or $550/t (+5% month-on-month), supported by another rise in oil prices.

 

Oilseed markets remain under pressure from soaring oil prices, which is keeping palm and soybean oil prices high, although physical markets are seeing increased supply and importers are lowering prices in anticipation of a larger harvest next season.