USDA has improved the global balance of barley

In the February balance of demand and supply, USDA experts again increased the forecast of world production and consumption of barley. Estimates of ending stocks have also been raised, but they will be lower than last year.

Global demand for barley remains weak amid falling wheat and corn prices, but talks between Australia and Canada to scrap tariffs and restore supplies have supported Australian barley prices, with a bumper crop weighing on the market. During the month, prices for Australian feed barley increased by $10/t FOB.

In a new report, USDA experts increased the forecast of world barley production in 2022/23 FY by 1 million tons to 150.48 million tons (145.93 million tons in 2021/22 FY), in particular for Australia - by 0. 3 to 13.7 million tons and the Russian Federation - by 0.5 to 21.5 million tons.

The forecast for barley exports in 2022/23 was increased for Australia by 0.2 to 7.7 million tons, Kazakhstan – by 0.1 to 0.7 million tons, but decreased for Canada by 0.2 to 2.8 million tons, as China may step up supplies from Australia.

The lack of active demand for Ukrainian barley from the main buyer, China, has a negative impact on purchase prices, which fell by $3-5/t to $175-193/t or UAH 7,000-7,100 per ton in Ukrainian ports during the week. The premium for barley certified for delivery to China is $3/t.

Activation of export purchases is possible only in case of solving the problems with the actions of ships through the grain corridor to the Black Sea ports of Ukraine. To do this, it is necessary to force Russian inspectors to speed up inspections or conduct inspections without a Russian delegation, as was the case in November, when representatives of Ukraine, Turkey and the UN inspected 75 vessels in three days.